The Shanghai Composite completely ignored resistance on the way up over the past few months. Now, it is poised to ignore support on the way down even in the event of a US China trade war deal. The prospects of a deal have already been baked into the cake as they say with RSI still dangerously close to overbought and MACD also on the cusp of signalling a top. There are several Fibonacci retracement levels here to keep an eye out for. The light grey is at all time levels with 1994 low and 2007 high. Meanwhile, the dark red shows 2015 highs with a 2018/2019 low and black lines with a 2018 high and 2019 low. Several levels remain important here. The first is the resistance at 3116-3134. This was effectively created when the market ended its week-long winning streak last week and retreated from June 2018 levels which were also 2018 rebound levels. Next we have former resistance as potential support between 2774 and 2828. Finally, a more interesting range to me is recent Fib level 23 percent 2710 to former resistance as potential support at 2666. Overall, I find it difficult to believe even given the positive sentiment of trade war resolution that we can blow past the current level of resistance. This is primarily based on the macro fundamental sentiment that we have not yet seen the full height of the global economic slowdown. If these trends change however, then we should reassess this bias and lean towards a more bullish sentiment.
Trade closed: target reached:
This trade was actually closed several days ago, but just got around to updating this now. At any rate, the short was a short-term position. Current position is neutral.