The monthly chart closed the month with a reversal candle at the top of the uptrend with an RSI just a hair under 96 (extremely overbought). When zooming into the weekly chart, the chart is showing bearish divergence that has been building for months. The longer these divergences are built up, the larger the correction will be. This coincides with how overbought the monthly chart is and the fact that it needs to be brought back to reality.
Then zooming into the daily chart, we had a rising wedge break bearish. Or it could also be observed as a head and shoulders break as well. We also had decreasing bull volume and decreasing daily RSI while price was struggling to make new highs. This is more divergence. Note the volume nodes as we slowly grinded sideways to slightly upwards. This looks like distribution to me and adding into all the other time frame charts it seems more likely than not that is the case.
Running fib extensions on our monthly chart, I am looking for a bare minimum retracement to ~$123.00 for the correction. Given the bearish divergence on the weekly that has me looking for even further downside around the support of ~$103. This also is very close to the .5 fib of $106.23. That is the target where I would then revert to going long. As of now, there is nothing bullish about this chart...the daily has a bearish chart pattern breaking bearish on an uptick of volume and in a daily downtrend. Weekly & monthly showing that major consolidation is very likely to continue for awhile from here.
Then zooming into the daily chart, we had a rising wedge break bearish. Or it could also be observed as a head and shoulders break as well. We also had decreasing bull volume and decreasing daily RSI while price was struggling to make new highs. This is more divergence. Note the volume nodes as we slowly grinded sideways to slightly upwards. This looks like distribution to me and adding into all the other time frame charts it seems more likely than not that is the case.
Running fib extensions on our monthly chart, I am looking for a bare minimum retracement to ~$123.00 for the correction. Given the bearish divergence on the weekly that has me looking for even further downside around the support of ~$103. This also is very close to the .5 fib of $106.23. That is the target where I would then revert to going long. As of now, there is nothing bullish about this chart...the daily has a bearish chart pattern breaking bearish on an uptick of volume and in a daily downtrend. Weekly & monthly showing that major consolidation is very likely to continue for awhile from here.