We are now going into a choppy whipsaw scenario so as promised I am updating what Socrates has given me.
I'll keep it short and sweet.
- Obviously today was murder. We did NOT reach the target of 318.00. However the rally on Monday did hit my profit target so I decided to sell and boy was that a good idea.
- I'm always surprised when the computer gets the timing right and it nailed it exactly: Each day corresponded with the short term timing array. Looking at the weekly level we can see it corresponded with the weekly direction perfectly (I indicated them in blue and pink tint here to distinguish).
- Importantly it has generated a Panic Cycle for this morning. No doubt related to the Producer Price Index. I'd say there's almost no chance that ends up favorable. However we don't actually know that yet. So I plan to trade that way: Hence why I'm leaving this post as "Neutral" since technically I'll be hedged in both directions.
A quotation:
"The Panic Cycle row represents a model that searches for instances of cyclical target dates or
time units in which abrupt or dramatic market price movement takes place."
- In other words we're in for some more fireworks.
- Now most important is that on Thursday the 15th we have a Direction Change AND a Turning Point on the daily timeframe. For reference the last time this happened was August 19th and August 26th... yeah. It didn't mean a low: It meant an acceleration in the current direction (ie down).
- Note that the Panic Cycle appears BEFORE the turning point/direction change...
- Volatility also is appearing to spike tomorrow (not pictured) and increasing the entire month. This is typically bearish. If I can find a convenient way of showing it I'll maybe add it to future charts.
- Interestingly we have generated a new Bullish Reversal and elected one Bearish one at 299.80 and 290.00 respectively.
My Plan:
- Set limit buy orders at 1/2 ATR (Average True Range) for TQQQ ($1.1) and SQQQ ($1.5) above and below the respective prices at 8:30. This is basically a hedging strategy. If one is hit then there's profit. If both are hit then the losses are canceled. The caveat is that if the distance is too wide then a hypothetical loss is higher. If it's too narrow then both could be triggered in an especially volatile price movement and the gains are minimized. Yes I am expecting price swings of over a dollar on each. I would go a full ATR but today showed that sentiment is quite binary.
- Last session went cleanly in one direction and was about as good a scenario as you can get; I will be kicking myself for sitting it out for a good couple of days at least lol. Hopefully I don't wake up that sick again for a long while.
- A word of caution: In... less ideal scenarios, the price can rebound several times. The price can jerk down in pre-market, then snap back up at the open. It can go up and down equally in both directions. Worse it can take a few hours into the trading day to do it so if you don't set a stop loss in time you can end up getting blindsided.
- Anyways. This will read more like an after action analysis since it's so late. But I prefer to have a clear record available for myself if nothing else.
May The Force be with you
I'll keep it short and sweet.
- Obviously today was murder. We did NOT reach the target of 318.00. However the rally on Monday did hit my profit target so I decided to sell and boy was that a good idea.
- I'm always surprised when the computer gets the timing right and it nailed it exactly: Each day corresponded with the short term timing array. Looking at the weekly level we can see it corresponded with the weekly direction perfectly (I indicated them in blue and pink tint here to distinguish).
- Importantly it has generated a Panic Cycle for this morning. No doubt related to the Producer Price Index. I'd say there's almost no chance that ends up favorable. However we don't actually know that yet. So I plan to trade that way: Hence why I'm leaving this post as "Neutral" since technically I'll be hedged in both directions.
A quotation:
"The Panic Cycle row represents a model that searches for instances of cyclical target dates or
time units in which abrupt or dramatic market price movement takes place."
- In other words we're in for some more fireworks.
- Now most important is that on Thursday the 15th we have a Direction Change AND a Turning Point on the daily timeframe. For reference the last time this happened was August 19th and August 26th... yeah. It didn't mean a low: It meant an acceleration in the current direction (ie down).
- Note that the Panic Cycle appears BEFORE the turning point/direction change...
- Volatility also is appearing to spike tomorrow (not pictured) and increasing the entire month. This is typically bearish. If I can find a convenient way of showing it I'll maybe add it to future charts.
- Interestingly we have generated a new Bullish Reversal and elected one Bearish one at 299.80 and 290.00 respectively.
My Plan:
- Set limit buy orders at 1/2 ATR (Average True Range) for TQQQ ($1.1) and SQQQ ($1.5) above and below the respective prices at 8:30. This is basically a hedging strategy. If one is hit then there's profit. If both are hit then the losses are canceled. The caveat is that if the distance is too wide then a hypothetical loss is higher. If it's too narrow then both could be triggered in an especially volatile price movement and the gains are minimized. Yes I am expecting price swings of over a dollar on each. I would go a full ATR but today showed that sentiment is quite binary.
- Last session went cleanly in one direction and was about as good a scenario as you can get; I will be kicking myself for sitting it out for a good couple of days at least lol. Hopefully I don't wake up that sick again for a long while.
- A word of caution: In... less ideal scenarios, the price can rebound several times. The price can jerk down in pre-market, then snap back up at the open. It can go up and down equally in both directions. Worse it can take a few hours into the trading day to do it so if you don't set a stop loss in time you can end up getting blindsided.
- Anyways. This will read more like an after action analysis since it's so late. But I prefer to have a clear record available for myself if nothing else.
May The Force be with you
Comment:
Okay so it looks like the adrenaline was used up yesterday and the market is just checking the wounded. Tomorrow is a direction change so I think it will be prudent to trade then. Right now price action is sideways so I'll wait to see how it looks in a couple of hours; I don't trade inside days generally, but they do make really good turning points.
Comment:
I'll update with the report tonight. As of now the energy model suggests a strong rally. HYG is also showing a bullish hammer. If we do rally then the strongest target is the 21st.
Comment:
Currently array has tomorrow for a turning point and direction change and then the 21st. The energy model is neutral. I suspect a bounce is possible at this time however. I'll see how premarket reacts.
Comment:
So today is just range bound. I made a few bucks scalping but really we're bouncing off the support. RSI is diverging as well as the HYG. Right now? This looks like accumulation.
Comment:
Corporate bonds are rallying. I opened a small long starter position which is green currently. We are going to probably elect at least 1 bearish reversal but I'll wait until the weekly array is generated at 11 EST tonight.
Comment:
Still long TQQQ. Made a few scalps but I'll basically just hang on until we break out of this trading range long or short. The amount of support we have to crack is enormous. This looks like basing activity right now. I'll make a new idea for next week cause honestly nothing's really changed. Timing wise there are a series of 4 turning points one after the other starting from the 21st to the 27th. Currently the model is saying on the weekly level: "Knee Jerk High CLOSE Still CRASH MODE".
So I think we could see a high near resistance this week or even a gap fill (probably not). Might go short again but meh I'll wait till we hit a bullish reversal or something or we break and retest support... Or JPOW literally craters the market lol.
So I think we could see a high near resistance this week or even a gap fill (probably not). Might go short again but meh I'll wait till we hit a bullish reversal or something or we break and retest support... Or JPOW literally craters the market lol.
Comment:
HYG just closed with a higher low. I'm going to be adding to my long position.
Comment:
Model Today: "Short Covering"
It's also generated a second direction change on Sept 22 with a turning point. So this could be wild.
It's also generated a second direction change on Sept 22 with a turning point. So this could be wild.
Comment:
We're full sell the news mode. Stopped out break even at 24.1 and re-entered at 24.00.