Support and resistance zones: www.tradingview.com/chart/9OZs9fQh/
Due to how spot on the TA was for my initial idea post (find here:
), the mid week update deserves its own separate idea with the link for the updated S/R levels for fellow Froge at the top of this post
Bear: The market trends lower, with Bitcoin trading at or below the low 27s. If the 0.00000173 support breaks and there are one or two 2h closes below, the fall to the next support at 0.0000010-11 becomes much more likely (Prayge... this is a drop of more than 35%!).
Neutral/sideways: Trading is expected to remain slightly lower between the levels of ~0.0000017 and ~0.0000019, with Bitcoin staying range-bound in the mid-27s.
Bull: Multiple 2H closes above the 195 level are needed to confirm, along with some large candles to test the 255-263 level. If PEPE stays in sync with Bitcoin, at least some 4H closes above 28.2k are required, but ideally a push higher to $30k. There are several resistance zones above the 255 level.
Although most readers may be smaller traders who are likely to be best classified as retail bulls, it's important to consider all three scenarios in the short term, including the bearish and neutral cases. As a volatile asset with trillions of coins held by one individual/set of linked wallets, it's essential to be prepared for all outcomes.
As a bird's eye view of the current character of PEPE, IMO the frog is uncertain right now and licking its wounds, still more than 50% down from its ATH. While the memers would like him to resume the uptrend for green Lambo, it's important to consider the trend changes in very simple terms and trade accordingly. If you like this analysis, following me here on Tradingview will motivate me to continue. Yelling into nothingness isn't exactly a pastime for the mentally sound :D🐸♥️
Due to how spot on the TA was for my initial idea post (find here:
Bear: The market trends lower, with Bitcoin trading at or below the low 27s. If the 0.00000173 support breaks and there are one or two 2h closes below, the fall to the next support at 0.0000010-11 becomes much more likely (Prayge... this is a drop of more than 35%!).
Neutral/sideways: Trading is expected to remain slightly lower between the levels of ~0.0000017 and ~0.0000019, with Bitcoin staying range-bound in the mid-27s.
Bull: Multiple 2H closes above the 195 level are needed to confirm, along with some large candles to test the 255-263 level. If PEPE stays in sync with Bitcoin, at least some 4H closes above 28.2k are required, but ideally a push higher to $30k. There are several resistance zones above the 255 level.
Although most readers may be smaller traders who are likely to be best classified as retail bulls, it's important to consider all three scenarios in the short term, including the bearish and neutral cases. As a volatile asset with trillions of coins held by one individual/set of linked wallets, it's essential to be prepared for all outcomes.
As a bird's eye view of the current character of PEPE, IMO the frog is uncertain right now and licking its wounds, still more than 50% down from its ATH. While the memers would like him to resume the uptrend for green Lambo, it's important to consider the trend changes in very simple terms and trade accordingly. If you like this analysis, following me here on Tradingview will motivate me to continue. Yelling into nothingness isn't exactly a pastime for the mentally sound :D🐸♥️
Comment:
Levels updated on the shared chart link - you can find the link and make your own copy at the top of this post. Here is a screenshot:
The correlations were described perfectly in yesterday's analysis, and the levels caught the price action as the bear scenario played out (Bitcoin headed lower).
We got a bounce off the previous support 0.00000117 level which is holding on for dear life now at 117-119, as previously outlined in the bear case scenario.
Seeing as we've had another big move in PEPE let's have some more Bull/Bear/Neutral forward guidance:
Bull: Complete capitulation beyond Bitcoin's influence would have been back to (six decimals) 0.0000005 levels, or worse, 0.0000002-3 levels (a further 70-80% drop from current price). The fact we haven't gone there yet means that a face ripping rally is still a possibility. Considering PEPE is tightly in sync with Bitcoin it would need to be a significant 10%+ rally in Bitcoin back to 28-30k levels. Retail would come back to FOMO the green candles as they usually do and those roughly 40% short positions would liquidate. For the bulls, PEPE desperately needs a Bitcoin turnaround to start challenging what could be heavy resistance at levels 0.00000200, above we have 0.00000263-291, and maybe Bitcoin is done selling off and at $30k bitcoin PEPE can try for another ATH.
Neutral: Bitcoin holds its important 26600 support and maybe bounces around between here and 27.3. PEPE in this scenario likely flirts with adding another 0 and trades "sideways" (lol) in a nice trader's 20% range 0.00000098 (six decimals) - 0.0000012 (five decimals).
Bear: Bitcoin loses it's 26.6k support and heads lower to test weak support at 26.2k, and stronger support at 25.9k. Much stronger support is lower in a 24.3-24.8 zone. PEPE likely goes to the 0.0000005's, and could completely capitulate to the 2's and 3's. Another way to put this is an almost total price reset and probably requires the high % wallets (creator pool) to dump everything and destroy the liquidity in the coin. This is still a possibility, but not the most likely scenario as IMHO it probably would have happened already. Also we must consider that would wipe out nearly 3 months of Bitcoin gains - a total trend change. For this to happen we'd need to see quite a few macro indicators also change trend, like the VIX, Nasdaq, JNK total breakdown, DXY back to 105... and none of that is happening on the charts at time of writing.
The correlations were described perfectly in yesterday's analysis, and the levels caught the price action as the bear scenario played out (Bitcoin headed lower).
We got a bounce off the previous support 0.00000117 level which is holding on for dear life now at 117-119, as previously outlined in the bear case scenario.
Seeing as we've had another big move in PEPE let's have some more Bull/Bear/Neutral forward guidance:
Bull: Complete capitulation beyond Bitcoin's influence would have been back to (six decimals) 0.0000005 levels, or worse, 0.0000002-3 levels (a further 70-80% drop from current price). The fact we haven't gone there yet means that a face ripping rally is still a possibility. Considering PEPE is tightly in sync with Bitcoin it would need to be a significant 10%+ rally in Bitcoin back to 28-30k levels. Retail would come back to FOMO the green candles as they usually do and those roughly 40% short positions would liquidate. For the bulls, PEPE desperately needs a Bitcoin turnaround to start challenging what could be heavy resistance at levels 0.00000200, above we have 0.00000263-291, and maybe Bitcoin is done selling off and at $30k bitcoin PEPE can try for another ATH.
Neutral: Bitcoin holds its important 26600 support and maybe bounces around between here and 27.3. PEPE in this scenario likely flirts with adding another 0 and trades "sideways" (lol) in a nice trader's 20% range 0.00000098 (six decimals) - 0.0000012 (five decimals).
Bear: Bitcoin loses it's 26.6k support and heads lower to test weak support at 26.2k, and stronger support at 25.9k. Much stronger support is lower in a 24.3-24.8 zone. PEPE likely goes to the 0.0000005's, and could completely capitulate to the 2's and 3's. Another way to put this is an almost total price reset and probably requires the high % wallets (creator pool) to dump everything and destroy the liquidity in the coin. This is still a possibility, but not the most likely scenario as IMHO it probably would have happened already. Also we must consider that would wipe out nearly 3 months of Bitcoin gains - a total trend change. For this to happen we'd need to see quite a few macro indicators also change trend, like the VIX, Nasdaq, JNK total breakdown, DXY back to 105... and none of that is happening on the charts at time of writing.
Trade closed: target reached:
Fully exited. Trading these levels was extremely profitable. The method I used to derive the above levels is taught by Ken Standfield in his masterclass.
Fully exited. Trading these levels was extremely profitable. The method I used to derive the above levels is taught by Ken Standfield in his masterclass.
_Bitcoin trading at or below the low 27s_ (it did)
_If the 0.00000173 support breaks_ (it did)
_fall to the next support at 0.0000010-11_ (on its way, already touched 12)_