“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
― Sun tzu, The Art of War
It is in the nature of the market and best interest of the smart money for the market to deceive the majority of market participants into losing their capital. This becomes a double tragedy for the common retail trader who has to contend with the unsavoury practises of Market Making Forex Brokers. Having said that, this Palladium chart illustrates that almost perfectly and I will explain;
We have been looking looking for a drop in this commodity for more than a week (check related ideas) and when it finally drops it decides to do a whiplash (house cleaning) thus frustrating both sellers and buyers (mostly retail traders). This whiplash also served as a stop hunt for flashing out the weak hands who had tight SLs on either sides of the market. Add in the wide spread that characterises Palladium and the typical Broker shenanigans, disaster in the air for retail traders. You will find that it is during such chaotic moves that a majority of short term strategies start to fall apart (which capital lost). What we need is a longterm strategy that allows us to factor in the possibility of such deception, enabling us to not flinch in the face of obvious deception (poker face). It is unwise to doubt your own analysis and keep re-routng your course, at the end you wont even know where you are going or why. It will serve your far better in your trading journey to be thorough in your analysis and resolute in its projections. Even if it turns to a lose, it is an intelligent loss which teaches you better than a dumb win.
Detour: Keep a journal of whatever form that suits your lifestyle, study it like your life depends on it. If you have spent as much time, effort, study and emotional currency as some of us have, you would concur with my previous statement.
We will update the analysis should the price action change, but so far, the sell position stands.
-May this coming trading week be better than your last-