$OPRA: Technical setup supported by blowout YOY earnings growth.
OPRA:1W
Using a 5 year look-back I see recent price structure from the October 2022 bottom as highly impulsive. Historical resistance (downward yellow arrows) has become support (upward yellow arrows). If you're a historical 'price memory' believer, which I am, this will make sense.
RSI is flattening out to the downside with slightly higher lows. Stochastic Momentum Index is clearly printing higher lows in conjunction with signal crossing above its EMA to the bullish side. Taken in composite we can infer that downside momentum has waned and appears to be gaining momentum to the upside.
Price has been rejected at the VWAP off highest highs at the 14.44 level and I would like to see a weekly close above this price point as confirmation that upside trend strength is intact.
1D, 4H and 1H charts are currently overbought after the recent 'double beat' on revenues and earnings that illustrate record year-over-year EPS growth from 0.13 cents per share to 2.05 dollars per share. For these technical indicator based reasons I will be looking for a minor, post-earnings, pullback in price to find an entry point from current levels, but there is no guarantee I will get it.
From a short term (4-6 weeks) trading standpoint, structure on small caps as represented by the
IWM
appears ready to break out to the upside as a potential 'catch up' trade to the consolidation going on in the large/mega cap space. (see image directly below)
Given the bullish structure (cup and handle) taking shape in the
IWM
and the increased potential for a small cap break out to the upside, I very much like
OPRA
as a 'catch-up' trade vehicle here.
From a middle to longer term standpoint,
OPRA
appears ready to make a larger move up to the 0.786 (54.25) and potentially the 1 Fib Extension (85.66) in the next year or two assuming optimal market conditions and high level execution from the
OPRA
management continue.
My reasoning here might seem extreme however it is as much to do with the failures of the
GOOG
Gemini AI and the inability of Google to effectively execute on their AI initiatives that provide a window of opportunity for the Opera team. (see link to Time article below)
There has long been a dearth of serious external competition for the Google browser after significant failures by well capitalized tech incumbents like Microsoft and well intentioned upstarts such as Duck Duck Go. While it might seem far-fetched at current, I believe the
OPRA
browser could be that 'external threat' to Google's Chrome emerging on the horizon of the competitive landscape.
I see
OPRA
as the leaner, sleeker and scrappier model ready to take browser market share from the mega cap behemoth whose internal weaknesses and ideological incentives seemingly find the tech giant incapable of getting out of its own way in the browser AI arms race.
OPRA
launched Aria in May of 2023 which interacts with OpenAI's GPT through Opera's own Composer infrastructure. (see Opera press release below) This difference allows
OPRA
to integrate Open AI's 'open source' model that has been a superior AI engine to Gemini at every step of the way assuming we are measuring AI product superiority by prompt response accuracy. Let me be clear in saying that I do not see
OPRA
as overtaking
GOOG
in market cap or revenues, that would be crazy to suggest, but I do see them as the best competition from a product design standpoint in the browser space at the time of writing this article.
In closing I will say that it is a rare thing to find a small cap, future-tech play with massive upside volatility potential and a solid dividend yield (5.53%) attached. Granted, the competition is stiff and capable of awakening at any moment, but Google's internal misfiring is Opera's opportunity to take share as the higher performing browser in the browser space.
Short term (6-8 weeks) price target: 21-23.
Mid-term (6-8 months) price target: Probable, 54-65.
Long-term (18-24 months): above 85.
Time Article: https://time.com/6835975/google-gemini-backlash-bias/
Opera Press release:
https://press.opera.com/2023/07/28/opera-announces-native-browser-ai-surpasses-1-million-users/
Using a 5 year look-back I see recent price structure from the October 2022 bottom as highly impulsive. Historical resistance (downward yellow arrows) has become support (upward yellow arrows). If you're a historical 'price memory' believer, which I am, this will make sense.
RSI is flattening out to the downside with slightly higher lows. Stochastic Momentum Index is clearly printing higher lows in conjunction with signal crossing above its EMA to the bullish side. Taken in composite we can infer that downside momentum has waned and appears to be gaining momentum to the upside.
Price has been rejected at the VWAP off highest highs at the 14.44 level and I would like to see a weekly close above this price point as confirmation that upside trend strength is intact.
1D, 4H and 1H charts are currently overbought after the recent 'double beat' on revenues and earnings that illustrate record year-over-year EPS growth from 0.13 cents per share to 2.05 dollars per share. For these technical indicator based reasons I will be looking for a minor, post-earnings, pullback in price to find an entry point from current levels, but there is no guarantee I will get it.
From a short term (4-6 weeks) trading standpoint, structure on small caps as represented by the
IWM
appears ready to break out to the upside as a potential 'catch up' trade to the consolidation going on in the large/mega cap space. (see image directly below)
Given the bullish structure (cup and handle) taking shape in the
IWM
and the increased potential for a small cap break out to the upside, I very much like
OPRA
as a 'catch-up' trade vehicle here. From a middle to longer term standpoint,
OPRA
appears ready to make a larger move up to the 0.786 (54.25) and potentially the 1 Fib Extension (85.66) in the next year or two assuming optimal market conditions and high level execution from the
OPRA
management continue. My reasoning here might seem extreme however it is as much to do with the failures of the
GOOG
Gemini AI and the inability of Google to effectively execute on their AI initiatives that provide a window of opportunity for the Opera team. (see link to Time article below) There has long been a dearth of serious external competition for the Google browser after significant failures by well capitalized tech incumbents like Microsoft and well intentioned upstarts such as Duck Duck Go. While it might seem far-fetched at current, I believe the
OPRA
browser could be that 'external threat' to Google's Chrome emerging on the horizon of the competitive landscape. I see
OPRA
as the leaner, sleeker and scrappier model ready to take browser market share from the mega cap behemoth whose internal weaknesses and ideological incentives seemingly find the tech giant incapable of getting out of its own way in the browser AI arms race.
OPRA
launched Aria in May of 2023 which interacts with OpenAI's GPT through Opera's own Composer infrastructure. (see Opera press release below) This difference allows
OPRA
to integrate Open AI's 'open source' model that has been a superior AI engine to Gemini at every step of the way assuming we are measuring AI product superiority by prompt response accuracy. Let me be clear in saying that I do not see
OPRA
as overtaking
GOOG
in market cap or revenues, that would be crazy to suggest, but I do see them as the best competition from a product design standpoint in the browser space at the time of writing this article. In closing I will say that it is a rare thing to find a small cap, future-tech play with massive upside volatility potential and a solid dividend yield (5.53%) attached. Granted, the competition is stiff and capable of awakening at any moment, but Google's internal misfiring is Opera's opportunity to take share as the higher performing browser in the browser space.
Short term (6-8 weeks) price target: 21-23.
Mid-term (6-8 months) price target: Probable, 54-65.
Long-term (18-24 months): above 85.
Time Article: https://time.com/6835975/google-gemini-backlash-bias/
Opera Press release:
https://press.opera.com/2023/07/28/opera-announces-native-browser-ai-surpasses-1-million-users/