After a drop to $69.28 per barrel Brent crude prices quickly rebounded to the upside on Wednesday touching $74.57. And there are several fundamental and technical reasons for it.First, gas prices in Europe skyrocketed to $180 per MWh for ICE Dutch TTF January gas futures on Tuesday, or by 22.7% in a single day. This lift off of gas prices also pushed crude prices up as high gas prices are forcing consumers to move to alternative fuels, including various petroleum products.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that record high gas prices would increase oil demand by 500,000 bpd throughout Q1 2022, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported weekly crude stocks in the United States dropped by 3.67 million barrels, well above expected 2.63 million. Distillate stocks were down by 849,000 barrels and gasoline inventories were up by 3.7 million barrels.
According to the forecasts the Energy information Administration (EIA) is expected to officially report crude oil inventories to be down by 2.750 barrels.
Technically, Brent crude prices are within the ABC correction, where the decline from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 created wave A. Now we have wave B that is usually in a form of a zigzag. The first part of this zigzag was the rise of Brent crude prices from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel. The second part strongly correlates with the first one and could be at 61.8% of its length or the same as the first one.
Mathematically that would mean a potential for Brent crude prices to recover to $76.06 per barrel, or even to $80.26 per barrel. However, the correction might not be over yet as Brent crude prices haven’t fell below 61.8% of the previous rise from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs oil may hit $100 per barrel over the next two years as the demand for oil continues to grow above existing record levels. However, a moderate expectation from Goldman Sachs suggests that average crude prices are likely to remain around $85 per barrel by the end of 2023.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that record high gas prices would increase oil demand by 500,000 bpd throughout Q1 2022, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported weekly crude stocks in the United States dropped by 3.67 million barrels, well above expected 2.63 million. Distillate stocks were down by 849,000 barrels and gasoline inventories were up by 3.7 million barrels.
According to the forecasts the Energy information Administration (EIA) is expected to officially report crude oil inventories to be down by 2.750 barrels.
Technically, Brent crude prices are within the ABC correction, where the decline from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 created wave A. Now we have wave B that is usually in a form of a zigzag. The first part of this zigzag was the rise of Brent crude prices from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel. The second part strongly correlates with the first one and could be at 61.8% of its length or the same as the first one.
Mathematically that would mean a potential for Brent crude prices to recover to $76.06 per barrel, or even to $80.26 per barrel. However, the correction might not be over yet as Brent crude prices haven’t fell below 61.8% of the previous rise from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs oil may hit $100 per barrel over the next two years as the demand for oil continues to grow above existing record levels. However, a moderate expectation from Goldman Sachs suggests that average crude prices are likely to remain around $85 per barrel by the end of 2023.
