The complex correction of the NZD/USD pair has (finally) resolved to complete a Bat pattern that it had been struggling towards since early Feb. While not the cleanest of Bat patterns, there are several good reasons to trade this setup.
1) Harmonics: 2 consecutive Bat patterns are now discernible on the daily chart. The first Bat is slightly imperfect because its D leg completed at 96.4 instead of 88.6. However, the internal retracements are sound, and the D leg did not strictly exceed point X. The internal retracements of the second Bat are almost perfect, the extended whipsawing in the CD leg notwithstanding.
2) Elliott Wave: Point D of the second Bat is also the termination point of wave 5 of an impulse wave. As such, price should now retrace at least 38.2% to 61.8%.
3) Candlesticks: The first candle after Point D of the second Bat gapped down, and closed at the 78.6 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The next candle engulfed it, and had almost no wicks. These factors suggest strong downward momentum.
While it is possible to enter on a market order now, a safe entry would be on a close below the daily resistance-become-support line at 0.67192, which is also the 61.8 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The safest entry would be after a breakdown and retest of this level.
Profit may be taken around 0.64294, a daily support zone, although scaling out of the trade at the 61.8 level of the second Bat at 0.65281 is advised, given its confluence with the 23.6 level of the first Bat.
This is a high probability set up, and allows a stop loss to be placed above the D leg of the second Bat at 0.68189, instead of the more traditional 100% level at point X. In other words, Elliott Wave and candlestick analyses of the harmonic pattern allows for a more precise level to be used; if price goes above this level, it would greatly reduce the confidence in this setup, and the position should be exited before further unnecessary losses.
Risk-to-reward ratio is just shy of 4:1.
All the best!
1) Harmonics: 2 consecutive Bat patterns are now discernible on the daily chart. The first Bat is slightly imperfect because its D leg completed at 96.4 instead of 88.6. However, the internal retracements are sound, and the D leg did not strictly exceed point X. The internal retracements of the second Bat are almost perfect, the extended whipsawing in the CD leg notwithstanding.
2) Elliott Wave: Point D of the second Bat is also the termination point of wave 5 of an impulse wave. As such, price should now retrace at least 38.2% to 61.8%.
3) Candlesticks: The first candle after Point D of the second Bat gapped down, and closed at the 78.6 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The next candle engulfed it, and had almost no wicks. These factors suggest strong downward momentum.
While it is possible to enter on a market order now, a safe entry would be on a close below the daily resistance-become-support line at 0.67192, which is also the 61.8 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The safest entry would be after a breakdown and retest of this level.
Profit may be taken around 0.64294, a daily support zone, although scaling out of the trade at the 61.8 level of the second Bat at 0.65281 is advised, given its confluence with the 23.6 level of the first Bat.
This is a high probability set up, and allows a stop loss to be placed above the D leg of the second Bat at 0.68189, instead of the more traditional 100% level at point X. In other words, Elliott Wave and candlestick analyses of the harmonic pattern allows for a more precise level to be used; if price goes above this level, it would greatly reduce the confidence in this setup, and the position should be exited before further unnecessary losses.
Risk-to-reward ratio is just shy of 4:1.
All the best!