NZDJPY Updated version, fundamental and technical.
UPDATED VERSION OF THE CHART FROM APRIL 15.
there have been a strong gain in the NZDJPY last couple of weeks and i therefor see that the trend have turned from a longterm bearish trend to a bullish trend.
i am awaiting further confirmation before a long entry is placed.
The confirmation levels will be 77.044. if the price breaks this level, we could see the price testing the last low at 75.625
While a break of 78.300 can support further upside to the 80.020 level and a break of this level will drive the price back to between 80.989 and 81.608
We also have a hidden bullish divergence (marked with yellow rings) in the RSI and the price chart.
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Fundamental.
From April 23 to April 30
Monday april 23: All industrial activity index for Japan (feb). which is expected to be 1,7% higher than previously and 1,4% higher than last years numbers for feb. (This could drive the price down to 77.044)
Tuesday April 24: CPI (YOY) 1Q for australia which is expected to be 0.1% higher. where the (QoQ) CPI data is expected to be 0,1% les than last years quarter. while the Trimmed mean CPI is expected to be 0,1% higher than last year quarter.
Keep in notice that this is high volatile numbers and good numbers can drive the price up, and therefore break the 78.304 level
Thursday April 26: import and export price index is given for Australia. the numbers are expected to be much lower than last months data. Where the export price index was previously 2.8% is expected to be -6,5%
Friday April 27: We have Imports and exports (Marts) for New-Zealand.
Tokyo CPI ex fresh foods (YoY) (April) is expected to hold the level from last, at 0,8% Where last years numbers was -0,3% and -0,4%
Tokyo CPI is expected to be 0,2% higher than last numbers. We will also be given the numbers for Unemployment rate and job/applicant rate for Japan which is also expected to hold a steady level from last at 2.5%. while last years Marts numbers was 3% and 2.8%. Large retailers sales for japan is also released and is expected to be -0,9% lower than previously at 0,6%
Friday April 27 we also have Interest rate decision which is expected to hold its levels at -0,1% BOJ outlook report (Q1) is also released following a Policy statement.
_____
We have for a long trade:
1. hidden bullish divergence.
2. Correctional minute waves
3. broadening ascending wedge.
4. Higher high, higher low.
5. Resistance at 77.044 with fibonacci levels.
6. High volatile data from japan, that can drive the prices up where interest rate decision is closely watched.
______
Short trade.
1. if Break of the 77.044 level
2. Bad numbers from New-Zealand and australia, also trade war tensions between China and US.
there have been a strong gain in the NZDJPY last couple of weeks and i therefor see that the trend have turned from a longterm bearish trend to a bullish trend.
i am awaiting further confirmation before a long entry is placed.
The confirmation levels will be 77.044. if the price breaks this level, we could see the price testing the last low at 75.625
While a break of 78.300 can support further upside to the 80.020 level and a break of this level will drive the price back to between 80.989 and 81.608
We also have a hidden bullish divergence (marked with yellow rings) in the RSI and the price chart.
_______
Fundamental.
From April 23 to April 30
Monday april 23: All industrial activity index for Japan (feb). which is expected to be 1,7% higher than previously and 1,4% higher than last years numbers for feb. (This could drive the price down to 77.044)
Tuesday April 24: CPI (YOY) 1Q for australia which is expected to be 0.1% higher. where the (QoQ) CPI data is expected to be 0,1% les than last years quarter. while the Trimmed mean CPI is expected to be 0,1% higher than last year quarter.
Keep in notice that this is high volatile numbers and good numbers can drive the price up, and therefore break the 78.304 level
Thursday April 26: import and export price index is given for Australia. the numbers are expected to be much lower than last months data. Where the export price index was previously 2.8% is expected to be -6,5%
Friday April 27: We have Imports and exports (Marts) for New-Zealand.
Tokyo CPI ex fresh foods (YoY) (April) is expected to hold the level from last, at 0,8% Where last years numbers was -0,3% and -0,4%
Tokyo CPI is expected to be 0,2% higher than last numbers. We will also be given the numbers for Unemployment rate and job/applicant rate for Japan which is also expected to hold a steady level from last at 2.5%. while last years Marts numbers was 3% and 2.8%. Large retailers sales for japan is also released and is expected to be -0,9% lower than previously at 0,6%
Friday April 27 we also have Interest rate decision which is expected to hold its levels at -0,1% BOJ outlook report (Q1) is also released following a Policy statement.
_____
We have for a long trade:
1. hidden bullish divergence.
2. Correctional minute waves
3. broadening ascending wedge.
4. Higher high, higher low.
5. Resistance at 77.044 with fibonacci levels.
6. High volatile data from japan, that can drive the prices up where interest rate decision is closely watched.
______
Short trade.
1. if Break of the 77.044 level
2. Bad numbers from New-Zealand and australia, also trade war tensions between China and US.