π TOPDOWN - Navigating a Bearish Market with Strong CHF Dominance
Overview: CHF stands as a dominant force in the forex market, consistently overpowering NZD according to historical data. A crucial breakdown in the monthly structure, especially in August, has placed this pair in a post-breakout scenario for the past four months, signaling a looming substantial selloff. On the weekly chart, the market is in a bearish buildup, struggling to surpass previous high levels and experiencing rejection from a significant supply zone.
π 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1οΈβ£ Swing Structure: Bearish
π’ Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
π’ Swing Move: Initial Impulsive
π’ Inducement: A noteworthy move from the point of interest, followed by a deep pullback completed with an Institutional Funded Candle (IFC).
π’ Internal Structure: Liquidity sweep indicates a strong reversal. Extremes in overbought conditions have been mitigated, signaling a strong sell.
π’ Resistance/Supply Areas: Multiple confluences, including resistance, supply, distribution, and premier, are aligned, suggesting a potent reversal zone.
2οΈβ£ Pattern
π’ CHART PATTERNS
Descending Triangle: Signaling bearish continuation.
Shakeout Continuation: Supporting the bearish bias.
π’ CANDLE PATTERNS
Key Observations:
Record session count with five consecutive bullish candles, ending with shrinking long wicks.
Inverted Hammer and gravestone Doji, indicating indecision and potential reversal.
Climax player activity is notable.
3οΈβ£ Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Indicates a high number of sellers at the current point.
4οΈβ£ Momentum RSI:
π’ Momentum State: Bullish to sideways.
π’ Range Shift: Bullish to sideways with loud moves, suggesting a 90% likelihood of further downside.
π’ Loud Moves: Completed their cycle, preparing for further downside.
π’ Overbought Rejections: Count of 1.
π’ Grandfather Father Son Entries: 50% probability setup.
5οΈβ£ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
π’ Bands above the middle band.
π’ Squeeze initiating volatility compression.
π’ Head fake done with the upper band.
π’ W pattern completed.
π’ Band Puncher at the upper band, a powerful reversal signal.
6οΈβ£ Strength - ROC Values: Equal at the point.
βοΈ Entry Time Frame: Daily
β Entry TF Structure: Bearish
βοΈ Current Move: Impulsive
β Support/Resistance Base: Extreme OB rejection.
βοΈ Candles Behavior: Bearish long wicks, gravestone Doji.
βοΈ Trend Line Breakout: Awaiting confirmation.
βοΈ Final Comments: Waiting for a sell signal.
π‘ Decision: Short this pair upon tomorrow's open on trend line breakout and H1 churn.
π Entry: 0.5375
β Stop Loss: 0.5529
π― Take Profit: 0.50
2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
π Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:5
π Expected Duration: 60 days
SUMMARY: The analysis maintains a bearish perspective, emphasizing potential for a substantial selloff. The strategy involves shorting the pair upon confirmation of a trend line breakout, with various indicators aligning to support the bearish bias. Considerations include multiple confluences at resistance areas and the completion of a W pattern at the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the expectation for a downward move.
Overview: CHF stands as a dominant force in the forex market, consistently overpowering NZD according to historical data. A crucial breakdown in the monthly structure, especially in August, has placed this pair in a post-breakout scenario for the past four months, signaling a looming substantial selloff. On the weekly chart, the market is in a bearish buildup, struggling to surpass previous high levels and experiencing rejection from a significant supply zone.
π 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1οΈβ£ Swing Structure: Bearish
π’ Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
π’ Swing Move: Initial Impulsive
π’ Inducement: A noteworthy move from the point of interest, followed by a deep pullback completed with an Institutional Funded Candle (IFC).
π’ Internal Structure: Liquidity sweep indicates a strong reversal. Extremes in overbought conditions have been mitigated, signaling a strong sell.
π’ Resistance/Supply Areas: Multiple confluences, including resistance, supply, distribution, and premier, are aligned, suggesting a potent reversal zone.
2οΈβ£ Pattern
π’ CHART PATTERNS
Descending Triangle: Signaling bearish continuation.
Shakeout Continuation: Supporting the bearish bias.
π’ CANDLE PATTERNS
Key Observations:
Record session count with five consecutive bullish candles, ending with shrinking long wicks.
Inverted Hammer and gravestone Doji, indicating indecision and potential reversal.
Climax player activity is notable.
3οΈβ£ Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Indicates a high number of sellers at the current point.
4οΈβ£ Momentum RSI:
π’ Momentum State: Bullish to sideways.
π’ Range Shift: Bullish to sideways with loud moves, suggesting a 90% likelihood of further downside.
π’ Loud Moves: Completed their cycle, preparing for further downside.
π’ Overbought Rejections: Count of 1.
π’ Grandfather Father Son Entries: 50% probability setup.
5οΈβ£ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
π’ Bands above the middle band.
π’ Squeeze initiating volatility compression.
π’ Head fake done with the upper band.
π’ W pattern completed.
π’ Band Puncher at the upper band, a powerful reversal signal.
6οΈβ£ Strength - ROC Values: Equal at the point.
βοΈ Entry Time Frame: Daily
β Entry TF Structure: Bearish
βοΈ Current Move: Impulsive
β Support/Resistance Base: Extreme OB rejection.
βοΈ Candles Behavior: Bearish long wicks, gravestone Doji.
βοΈ Trend Line Breakout: Awaiting confirmation.
βοΈ Final Comments: Waiting for a sell signal.
π‘ Decision: Short this pair upon tomorrow's open on trend line breakout and H1 churn.
π Entry: 0.5375
β Stop Loss: 0.5529
π― Take Profit: 0.50
2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
π Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:5
π Expected Duration: 60 days
SUMMARY: The analysis maintains a bearish perspective, emphasizing potential for a substantial selloff. The strategy involves shorting the pair upon confirmation of a trend line breakout, with various indicators aligning to support the bearish bias. Considerations include multiple confluences at resistance areas and the completion of a W pattern at the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the expectation for a downward move.
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Trade active:
"After breaking the trendline, another impulsive move has started. Stay calm and enjoy the profits!"
Comment:
A significant consolidation is apparent, marked by numerous candles with long wicks, indicating a wide trading range. The breakout from this area will determine the direction of the next move.
Comment:
We maintain our position with unwavering confidence, as the analysis and market structure on our timeframe remain unchanged. Staying committed to our strategy. #ProfessionalTrading"