NZDCAD (trendline hit, Possible trend reversal)
Price hit .92628 which happens to be -
1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low,
2) Resistance level
3) Trendline.
2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips
The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual 2.8, forecast was for 2.5. Recall Australian GDP was a huge disappointment on DEC 4th with a print reading of .3 versus .6 expected.
On the Canadian side
- the unemployment dropped to 5.8 to 5.6 and 94k jobs created
- OIL prices, which looks like its stabilizing, if Oil moves higher, more confirmation of downward move.
- Canadian WTI-WSC spread rapidly decreasing from a high of 55 to 14.75, avg for the year is 35. (alberta cut production)
NZ-CA 10 year spread bottomed on 4th OCT - at .03 and moved higher since then to 40, still around the average.
To summarize -
IF NZD GDP is a big miss, heavy short, top is in place, downtrend begins.
IF NZD GDP takes a big leap, then look for breakout
IF NZD GDP is normal then as is follow PA.
1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low,
2) Resistance level
3) Trendline.
2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips
The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual 2.8, forecast was for 2.5. Recall Australian GDP was a huge disappointment on DEC 4th with a print reading of .3 versus .6 expected.
On the Canadian side
- the unemployment dropped to 5.8 to 5.6 and 94k jobs created
- OIL prices, which looks like its stabilizing, if Oil moves higher, more confirmation of downward move.
- Canadian WTI-WSC spread rapidly decreasing from a high of 55 to 14.75, avg for the year is 35. (alberta cut production)
NZ-CA 10 year spread bottomed on 4th OCT - at .03 and moved higher since then to 40, still around the average.
To summarize -
IF NZD GDP is a big miss, heavy short, top is in place, downtrend begins.
IF NZD GDP takes a big leap, then look for breakout
IF NZD GDP is normal then as is follow PA.
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