π TOPDOWN Analysis - Navigating a Complex Market Structure
Overview: Monthly observations reveal a cautious market, with a bearish internal structure emerging after a previous corrective move. Weekly charts, however, present a conflicting scenario, showcasing a lower high and hints of bullish momentum. The confusion intensifies as prices linger around a crucial resistance area. A sell-focused strategy is recommended due to the proximity to significant resistance.
π 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1οΈβ£ Swing Structure: Bearish
π’ Structure Behavior: BoS (Breakout of Structure)
π’ Swing Move: Corrective move completed at a premium area, marked by an IFC candle.
π’ Inducement: Awaiting confirmation at a potential high.
π’ Pull Back: Anticipating a retracement to the inducement level.
π’ Internal Structure: Bears waiting; marked by supply, distribution, and rejection at a crucial level.
π’ Supply/Distribution/Premium Areas: Intense interaction with a strong rejection at the resistance area. Trendline importance emphasized; waiting for a break and a close below.
Traps: Evident, as prices attempt to surpass the area but struggle to sustain.
2οΈβ£ Pattern
π’ CHART PATTERNS
Reversal
Potential double top patterns; not classic but significance lies in key candle patterns and price movements.
Shakeout reversal observed.
π’ CANDLE PATTERNS
Notable Observations:
Bullish candles appearing but failing, marked by a pin bar reversal.
Long wick candles, inverter hammer, and a gravestone doji present.
3οΈβ£ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the end of the corrective move. Low volumes during the rejection at the supply area; unclear picture.
4οΈβ£ Momentum RSI:
π’ RSI in Super Bullish Zone: Signifies heavy momentum.
π’ RSI Range Shift: Successful shift from sideways to bullish, indicating robust momentum.
π’ Divergence: No clear divergence yet; momentum favoring bulls.
5οΈβ£ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
π’ Middle Band Support: Price above the middle line.
π’ No Squeeze or Consolidation: Indicates ongoing momentum.
π’ Dual Band Derivation 1: Favorable for bulls.
6οΈβ£ Strength
Rate of Change: NZD stronger than CAD.
βοΈ Entry Time Frame: H1
β Entry TF Structure: Bullish
βοΈ Current Move: Impulsive
β Support/Resistance Base: Trendline
βοΈ Candles Behavior: Favorable
βοΈ Triangle Breakout: Awaiting confirmation.
βοΈ Final Comments: Buy at the breakout, based on momentum and volatility.
π‘ Decision: Initially a buy entry based on the current corrective move; if it fails, consider a reversal entry.
π Entry: 0.8309
β Stop Loss: 0.8266
π― Take Profit: 0.8427, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO.
π Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:2
π Expected Duration: 3 days
SUMMARY: The analysis navigates a complex market structure with conflicting signals on the monthly and weekly charts. The suggested approach is cautious, leaning toward a sell strategy due to the proximity to significant resistance. The daily analysis provides detailed insights into patterns, candle formations, and volumes. The buy entry is considered with specific conditions and exit strategies. This is a corrective move or contra trend entry
Overview: Monthly observations reveal a cautious market, with a bearish internal structure emerging after a previous corrective move. Weekly charts, however, present a conflicting scenario, showcasing a lower high and hints of bullish momentum. The confusion intensifies as prices linger around a crucial resistance area. A sell-focused strategy is recommended due to the proximity to significant resistance.
π 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1οΈβ£ Swing Structure: Bearish
π’ Structure Behavior: BoS (Breakout of Structure)
π’ Swing Move: Corrective move completed at a premium area, marked by an IFC candle.
π’ Inducement: Awaiting confirmation at a potential high.
π’ Pull Back: Anticipating a retracement to the inducement level.
π’ Internal Structure: Bears waiting; marked by supply, distribution, and rejection at a crucial level.
π’ Supply/Distribution/Premium Areas: Intense interaction with a strong rejection at the resistance area. Trendline importance emphasized; waiting for a break and a close below.
Traps: Evident, as prices attempt to surpass the area but struggle to sustain.
2οΈβ£ Pattern
π’ CHART PATTERNS
Reversal
Potential double top patterns; not classic but significance lies in key candle patterns and price movements.
Shakeout reversal observed.
π’ CANDLE PATTERNS
Notable Observations:
Bullish candles appearing but failing, marked by a pin bar reversal.
Long wick candles, inverter hammer, and a gravestone doji present.
3οΈβ£ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the end of the corrective move. Low volumes during the rejection at the supply area; unclear picture.
4οΈβ£ Momentum RSI:
π’ RSI in Super Bullish Zone: Signifies heavy momentum.
π’ RSI Range Shift: Successful shift from sideways to bullish, indicating robust momentum.
π’ Divergence: No clear divergence yet; momentum favoring bulls.
5οΈβ£ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
π’ Middle Band Support: Price above the middle line.
π’ No Squeeze or Consolidation: Indicates ongoing momentum.
π’ Dual Band Derivation 1: Favorable for bulls.
6οΈβ£ Strength
Rate of Change: NZD stronger than CAD.
βοΈ Entry Time Frame: H1
β Entry TF Structure: Bullish
βοΈ Current Move: Impulsive
β Support/Resistance Base: Trendline
βοΈ Candles Behavior: Favorable
βοΈ Triangle Breakout: Awaiting confirmation.
βοΈ Final Comments: Buy at the breakout, based on momentum and volatility.
π‘ Decision: Initially a buy entry based on the current corrective move; if it fails, consider a reversal entry.
π Entry: 0.8309
β Stop Loss: 0.8266
π― Take Profit: 0.8427, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO.
π Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:2
π Expected Duration: 3 days
SUMMARY: The analysis navigates a complex market structure with conflicting signals on the monthly and weekly charts. The suggested approach is cautious, leaning toward a sell strategy due to the proximity to significant resistance. The daily analysis provides detailed insights into patterns, candle formations, and volumes. The buy entry is considered with specific conditions and exit strategies. This is a corrective move or contra trend entry
Trade active:
Position Activated we can open our positions
Trade active:
Although the price is currently in a correction phase, our overall structure remains intact, so we should continue to hold."
Trade closed manually:
prices give us a strong reversal so its better to close our entry