NVDA
* after two consecutive down weeks, there was a week of consolidation
* Currently 2d-2d-1 on #TheStrat
* I am still bearish on semiconductors; we are still in a bearish channel and I think the rally to 187 (December) was just a failed broadening formation. Institutions wanted to squeeze bears into selling their positions by running it up.
* Now it’s time to run it below 109 (October low)
I'm watching to see if the price will go ABOVE 150.10 this coming week (which would breach last week's high) and THEN have it retrace and fall shortly after that. The drawdown could take several weeks, we'll see.
Maybe a 2d-1-2u-2d, which I think "Stratters" call a "Randy Jackson" ?
Trade active:
I jumped the gun this morning and bought a Jan13'22 150p ... I paid 3.35 for it, and I'm getting wrecked so far. It's value has been halved in just half an hour. Let's see where it goes from here ... I'm still bearish.
Trade closed: stop reached:
I let this option expire worthless. I absolutely rushed this trade, and will learn from it.
This trade will be my biggest lesson from Q1 2023. The consolidation that happened in the first week of January was a REVERSAL, and my bearish channel blinded me to that possibility.
I was also bearish on the overall market, though $SPY as really just churned and NVDA has been an outperformer.
Maybe I should cut myself some slack: I realized I was wrong by late/mid-January (see above) and probably should have just been open to the idea that it now had upward momentum.