The Greatest Depression has Begun
The Greatest Depression has Begun.
This post will look at the Nasdaq through the lens of ICT concepts.
So what happened this week of 10/22/23.
NDX broke the equal lows from May/June @ 14220 - and balanced a weekly Fair Value Gap by attacking the midpoint/CE of this weekly FVG.
More importantly - by taking out the June lows, we now have a WEEKLY Market Structure shift to bear.
Step 1 is a liquidity raid which we completed by running out those stops.
Step 2 is to look back into the recent price run, and look for inefficiencies that we need to balance before going lower. We have a Daily FVG formed from the Oct 25th sell off that we need to rebalance.
Plan for week of Oct 29th.
I want to see the daily FVG filled at 14500 - but I would also like to see NDX take out those relative equal highs that are just into the premium zone of this entire daily swing. Taking out this purple line would be a fresh step 1 that we can sell into.
/NQ has even more precision to it - we have a 2nd dFVG up at 14950 - and the CE of that FVG is also a daily LP , AND its in the premium zone of the entire swing - THAT is the ideal entry for longer term swing to ride this train wreck out
This post will look at the Nasdaq through the lens of ICT concepts.
So what happened this week of 10/22/23.
NDX broke the equal lows from May/June @ 14220 - and balanced a weekly Fair Value Gap by attacking the midpoint/CE of this weekly FVG.
More importantly - by taking out the June lows, we now have a WEEKLY Market Structure shift to bear.
Step 1 is a liquidity raid which we completed by running out those stops.
Step 2 is to look back into the recent price run, and look for inefficiencies that we need to balance before going lower. We have a Daily FVG formed from the Oct 25th sell off that we need to rebalance.
Plan for week of Oct 29th.
I want to see the daily FVG filled at 14500 - but I would also like to see NDX take out those relative equal highs that are just into the premium zone of this entire daily swing. Taking out this purple line would be a fresh step 1 that we can sell into.
/NQ has even more precision to it - we have a 2nd dFVG up at 14950 - and the CE of that FVG is also a daily LP , AND its in the premium zone of the entire swing - THAT is the ideal entry for longer term swing to ride this train wreck out
Trade active:
Closing longs up here. I am looking for a reversal on 1h charts to sell into.
Looking for 13800 from here
Looking for 13800 from here
Comment:
ES for example - REALLY clean run of the External Liquidity Range (ERL) to Internal Liquidity Range (IRL).
ERL was the October Lows, IRL on the WEEKLY references back to this weekly FVG.
The REAL mischievous part of this weekly chart - is they ran it up here on a single weekly candle, thus leaving the next external liquidity zone down into April Lows.
ERL was the October Lows, IRL on the WEEKLY references back to this weekly FVG.
The REAL mischievous part of this weekly chart - is they ran it up here on a single weekly candle, thus leaving the next external liquidity zone down into April Lows.
Trade active:
Cashed out on longs at the cash open, then started layering in shorts all day. HOD was a run on a 4h Liquidity pool.
She is sticking to the script so far - This imputes a 13800 TP for this swing lower.
She is sticking to the script so far - This imputes a 13800 TP for this swing lower.
Trade active:
NQ is very tired up here - but 15460 has weekly relative equal highs
Indexes are exhausted- but big money cant sell until they run those stops - look how gappy and tired cash looks lol
Indexes are exhausted- but big money cant sell until they run those stops - look how gappy and tired cash looks lol
Comment:
What a wild and crazy week - NDX is +10% in 2 weeks...
Weekly - we took out 15460 for that swing high from October
From here, we need to see how the weekly FVG that formed at 15100 is respected or not - that level exists on the daily and weekly levels.
Daily - we have a Market structure shift to bullish - Bulls want to see 15100 respected as support, then our next target would be the Sept highs up near 15700
Weekly - we took out 15460 for that swing high from October
From here, we need to see how the weekly FVG that formed at 15100 is respected or not - that level exists on the daily and weekly levels.
Daily - we have a Market structure shift to bullish - Bulls want to see 15100 respected as support, then our next target would be the Sept highs up near 15700
Comment:
Looking across Asset classes - you can see how ES ran stops on a 4h swing high area.
If this was the local top, we are looking for lower lows- and the next logical step on ES is the April lows down around 4068
For NQ - this means they the next stops would be April lows down around 12,800
If this was the local top, we are looking for lower lows- and the next logical step on ES is the April lows down around 4068
For NQ - this means they the next stops would be April lows down around 12,800
Trade active:
Added Shorts today.
We swept July highs and are respecting this weekly CE - so far.
This is a big level with TONS of stops that would allow BIG smart money to get FAT short this market.
I'm still looking for the May, then April Lows.
If we go higher, ATH is next stop and I will close the shorts.
We swept July highs and are respecting this weekly CE - so far.
This is a big level with TONS of stops that would allow BIG smart money to get FAT short this market.
I'm still looking for the May, then April Lows.
If we go higher, ATH is next stop and I will close the shorts.
Comment:
You can see it in the monthly - the 2022 lows were a run on those last swing lows from Oct 2021.
We take out the October lows from 2022 then we are going to the Covid Lows which is ~ 60% drop from here.
Again - BIG DICK MONEY trades off the weekly and monthly chart.
We take out the October lows from 2022 then we are going to the Covid Lows which is ~ 60% drop from here.
Again - BIG DICK MONEY trades off the weekly and monthly chart.
Trade active:
The last 2 weeks rallied right into that weekly CE from ATH - and rejected.
Here is the WEEKLY view from the 2022 lows of Consolidation and the 2 stages of accumulation.
You can see it clearer what is happening on the 4h chart.
They liquidated the shorts from here and we have been selling nicely since the top - today we even got a nice 4h Break of Structure lower in the pre-cash session
We can see the 4h FVG was being respected - and moving forward I am looking to sell ANY movement into that 15.9k area. Our next target is going to be that mitigation block down at 15.3k (the white box)
Zooming back out to the weekly chart - After we take out the mitigation block ~ 13k - that yellow trendline connecting the Covid Lows to the October lows will be in the are of testing.
If we break that yellow trendline - then we will head straight for the October lows. By then - the market will be in full panic and we will be heading back to the Covid Lows.
I'll keep this thread updated as we move, but the very first step of many, was completed today.
Here is the WEEKLY view from the 2022 lows of Consolidation and the 2 stages of accumulation.
You can see it clearer what is happening on the 4h chart.
They liquidated the shorts from here and we have been selling nicely since the top - today we even got a nice 4h Break of Structure lower in the pre-cash session
We can see the 4h FVG was being respected - and moving forward I am looking to sell ANY movement into that 15.9k area. Our next target is going to be that mitigation block down at 15.3k (the white box)
Zooming back out to the weekly chart - After we take out the mitigation block ~ 13k - that yellow trendline connecting the Covid Lows to the October lows will be in the are of testing.
If we break that yellow trendline - then we will head straight for the October lows. By then - the market will be in full panic and we will be heading back to the Covid Lows.
I'll keep this thread updated as we move, but the very first step of many, was completed today.
Comment:
One thing I got TOTALLY WRONG here - I wasn't using the FRONT MONTH for my weekly chart - which changes things in the short term.
The /NQZ weekly lows were blown out into the CE of a FVG - we could start a parabolic rally to 16265 from here. I am hedged for upside risk, but I would not be surprised to see us run that weekly 16265 level before they tank it.
The /NQZ weekly lows were blown out into the CE of a FVG - we could start a parabolic rally to 16265 from here. I am hedged for upside risk, but I would not be surprised to see us run that weekly 16265 level before they tank it.
Comment:
Things are starting to heat up for is as we near our final top target that we can sell into on the December /NQ contract. Market Makers are now down to just a few days to get out of their December Longs and they will require the stops 150 handles higher from here to do that.
Friday 12/8 we got the jobs report and we saw a few things happen confirming our bullish bias.
The weekly chart is still reaching for the ERL at 16250 on the Dec NQ contract
the 4h shows a Inverted Head & Shoulders (IHS) with a measured move up to this area.
All dips are being bought on the 4h FVGs - they WANT this thing higher.
Below is the IHS on the 4h that shows the measured move to be the Dec contract highs being swept.
The concerning part from my perch, is how WEAK this pig market is intra-day.
You can see here on the 5min chart on Friday how the MMs had to engineer liquidity to drag the market higher.
Watching the tape live, you could see them selling hard into basically every spike.
So now that we know where we are, and we know where we are going (+150 handles from here) - then what?
We have to remember that the December contract rolls off the board on December 15th,. Between now and then we have TONS of news drivers;
So take your pick - there will be PLENTY of Volatility this week as they reach for 16250 to exit longs on the Dec contract.
After December 15th, the market goes into SUPER thin trading until Jan 1 as we enter the march contract and holiday season.
The March contract has already swept the contract highs - so im looking for a pullback to the weekly FVG down around 15250 on the /NQH contract.
Once we visit that FVG we will know if we can bounce from there and continue higher, or if this is just the start of something larger. The real tell will be the SPEED of the sell - if we get some violent 2 week sell off, we will create a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a Break of Structure (BOS) signaling the change of trend from the WEEKLY chart.
Friday 12/8 we got the jobs report and we saw a few things happen confirming our bullish bias.
The weekly chart is still reaching for the ERL at 16250 on the Dec NQ contract
the 4h shows a Inverted Head & Shoulders (IHS) with a measured move up to this area.
All dips are being bought on the 4h FVGs - they WANT this thing higher.
Below is the IHS on the 4h that shows the measured move to be the Dec contract highs being swept.
The concerning part from my perch, is how WEAK this pig market is intra-day.
You can see here on the 5min chart on Friday how the MMs had to engineer liquidity to drag the market higher.
Watching the tape live, you could see them selling hard into basically every spike.
So now that we know where we are, and we know where we are going (+150 handles from here) - then what?
We have to remember that the December contract rolls off the board on December 15th,. Between now and then we have TONS of news drivers;
So take your pick - there will be PLENTY of Volatility this week as they reach for 16250 to exit longs on the Dec contract.
After December 15th, the market goes into SUPER thin trading until Jan 1 as we enter the march contract and holiday season.
The March contract has already swept the contract highs - so im looking for a pullback to the weekly FVG down around 15250 on the /NQH contract.
Once we visit that FVG we will know if we can bounce from there and continue higher, or if this is just the start of something larger. The real tell will be the SPEED of the sell - if we get some violent 2 week sell off, we will create a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a Break of Structure (BOS) signaling the change of trend from the WEEKLY chart.
Trade active:
NQ rolled to the March contract and CPI came out this morning. This smells like the cover MM needed to get short the March contract from ATH - the 4h candle on NQ looks terrible (for now) - FOMC is tomorrow
Comment:
Scary version is that rates just bottomed while everyone and their pet rock was chasing ATH.
If the 10yr bounces from here - it is a classic ERL -> IRL cycle and we are going higher from here to like 5.26%..
NQ swept the ATH so that big money could flip to short the market via order pairing - next stop IMO is the weekly FVG at 15250 - bulls MUST defend this level.
If the 10yr bounces from here - it is a classic ERL -> IRL cycle and we are going higher from here to like 5.26%..
NQ swept the ATH so that big money could flip to short the market via order pairing - next stop IMO is the weekly FVG at 15250 - bulls MUST defend this level.
Comment:
It looks like inflation is about to pop. Energies like Oil and NG are looking bullish on the weekly charts - and so is the 10yr. This would be a PERFECT trap while everyone is max long at index ATH.
I would like to see a weekly bounce from here - we need to fill that WEEKLY Volume Imbalance @ 4.4 - and I would like to see us at least visit the weekly CE @ 5.8 - there is still a weekly around 6.4
I would like to see a weekly bounce from here - we need to fill that WEEKLY Volume Imbalance @ 4.4 - and I would like to see us at least visit the weekly CE @ 5.8 - there is still a weekly around 6.4
Comment:
ES finally ran its ATH on the continuous contract today - to join NQ and YM now up in ATH territory.
They FINALLY filled the last VIX gap from the class Monday Gap up - just as they got /ES to run its ATH.
We now have ES, NQ, YM all at ATH - with RTY at HOY - all while we have VIX hovering down around Pre-Covid Levels.
The 10yr just went green on the week as well
From here - I'm looking for a 9% down move on NQ.
BIGGER PICTURE- The Quarterly Chart - we just did a ERL run for ATH up here - I'm looking for a run back to the quarterly shift in Q1 aiming for a 20% down move
They FINALLY filled the last VIX gap from the class Monday Gap up - just as they got /ES to run its ATH.
We now have ES, NQ, YM all at ATH - with RTY at HOY - all while we have VIX hovering down around Pre-Covid Levels.
The 10yr just went green on the week as well
From here - I'm looking for a 9% down move on NQ.
BIGGER PICTURE- The Quarterly Chart - we just did a ERL run for ATH up here - I'm looking for a run back to the quarterly shift in Q1 aiming for a 20% down move
Comment:
I am taking my content private in 2024 - in order to stay up to date where I take an even deeper dive into markets - visit us at www.baero.biz/blog
DXY: last week, we saw the weekly IRL area hold- making me thing the next stop is going to ERL, We have some weekly Relative Equal Highs (REH) at 104.234 that is the next draw on liquidity. The caveat here - is that a rising DXY will put pressure on commodities and stocks in general.
10yr Interest Rate: The 10yr filled its weekly FVG IRL that we were looking for - but it went even a smidge lower to fill in a weekly weekly volume imbalance before bouncing. Much like DXY, I am expecting the 10yr to start its ascent.
The US Government has way to much debt, and it can't afford the interest payments up here as the debt service alone, is larger than the defense budget. The perverse thing about this - is the market knows this and will start to command a higher interest rate due to the risk associated with a sovereign debt pressure. Stock have been surging lately on the promise of cheap money from the Fed - so this is the chart that will dictate EVERYTHING. The single trade that NOBODY is positioned for - is higher rates.
VIX: After filling all the lower gaps on VIX from 2020 - we finally saw some volatility come back into the market - and the VIX behaved exactly the way we wanted to see. The 4h VIX shows the tale of us taking out the REH and now we are back-testing a 4h FVG.
IF the VIX bounces from here - its going to be putting pressure on the indexes - which everyone and their pet rock are currently max long.
Nasdaq - nATH this week on Nazzy! The hard part about charts that are at ATH - is we have no target to aim for on longs. Thus, we are forced to stay long the market so long as the 4h chart is bullish. We had a nice sell off on Wed afternoon- and so long as those lows hold, I am looking to buy any dips into this zone.
It's a little more clear on the ES, but the same general idea flows - we are bullish on buying dips until we see a Market Structure shift on the 4h.
The most scary idea for Bulls, will be if we start to see "The 3 Horsemen" of the DXY, the 10yr, and VIX all start to climb from here. Once we get into January the markets are currently positioned for an accident and all the ingredients are there.. Once we roll into 2024 I can look for a quarterly shift objective - but as it stands right now we could be shooting for 13k or so in Q1 which would be a 25% drop from here.
DXY: last week, we saw the weekly IRL area hold- making me thing the next stop is going to ERL, We have some weekly Relative Equal Highs (REH) at 104.234 that is the next draw on liquidity. The caveat here - is that a rising DXY will put pressure on commodities and stocks in general.
10yr Interest Rate: The 10yr filled its weekly FVG IRL that we were looking for - but it went even a smidge lower to fill in a weekly weekly volume imbalance before bouncing. Much like DXY, I am expecting the 10yr to start its ascent.
The US Government has way to much debt, and it can't afford the interest payments up here as the debt service alone, is larger than the defense budget. The perverse thing about this - is the market knows this and will start to command a higher interest rate due to the risk associated with a sovereign debt pressure. Stock have been surging lately on the promise of cheap money from the Fed - so this is the chart that will dictate EVERYTHING. The single trade that NOBODY is positioned for - is higher rates.
VIX: After filling all the lower gaps on VIX from 2020 - we finally saw some volatility come back into the market - and the VIX behaved exactly the way we wanted to see. The 4h VIX shows the tale of us taking out the REH and now we are back-testing a 4h FVG.
IF the VIX bounces from here - its going to be putting pressure on the indexes - which everyone and their pet rock are currently max long.
Nasdaq - nATH this week on Nazzy! The hard part about charts that are at ATH - is we have no target to aim for on longs. Thus, we are forced to stay long the market so long as the 4h chart is bullish. We had a nice sell off on Wed afternoon- and so long as those lows hold, I am looking to buy any dips into this zone.
It's a little more clear on the ES, but the same general idea flows - we are bullish on buying dips until we see a Market Structure shift on the 4h.
The most scary idea for Bulls, will be if we start to see "The 3 Horsemen" of the DXY, the 10yr, and VIX all start to climb from here. Once we get into January the markets are currently positioned for an accident and all the ingredients are there.. Once we roll into 2024 I can look for a quarterly shift objective - but as it stands right now we could be shooting for 13k or so in Q1 which would be a 25% drop from here.
Trade active:
So here is the setup for this week of 1/7/2024
-NQ has corrected into discount and filled inefficiencies on the daily chart via volume imbalances and daily FVGs.
-The VIX is ready to correct lower to fill its gap
-NQ needs to rise to back-test some of the inefficiencies it's left behind - I want to see the daily FVG and Daily Breaker respected for the next move down.
-NQ should top and VIX should bottom right about the same time.
I have taken all my postings over to my weekly news letter - its $20/mo and you get 50% of your first month - DM me for more info!
-NQ has corrected into discount and filled inefficiencies on the daily chart via volume imbalances and daily FVGs.
-The VIX is ready to correct lower to fill its gap
-NQ needs to rise to back-test some of the inefficiencies it's left behind - I want to see the daily FVG and Daily Breaker respected for the next move down.
-NQ should top and VIX should bottom right about the same time.
I have taken all my postings over to my weekly news letter - its $20/mo and you get 50% of your first month - DM me for more info!
Follow us weekly at www.Baero.biz/blog
This rally might go to 15100