NAZ once again with magical lift in the O/N to offset the Friday sell off or the previous O/N Pump/Dump. Am I the only one has noticed this? Now we need to se if the typical predictable 2nd half of the Friday-Monday Long Only pattern plays out today. Getting tricky as the pattern use to be Friday Long and Monday Long, previous 2 Friday's have gone lower with last Monday sideways to lower. Open Range/Drives usually sell off 1st. Other patterns: Whenever the NAZ has struggled to get lower over 2-4 days, it usually retraces back up it 1 day or so. My Friday Post was Long with the lower range as 2nd option. Many times I am early on a call and the exact opposite will play out prior to a bigger move in my original direction. Today and Tuesday may be huge moves to upside prior to Fed Day. Chart: 4HR, YTD Channel, Yellow arrow is break out range, Dots are targets and reverse trade if hit, 18345 & 17960 are KL's, 19376 & 18154 are TLX's. So far nothing has changed except we had 2 Friday Reg Sessions that sold off. The O/N is still in charge and the Boss, play this range 1st and do not expect much from the Reg Session. The Reg Session PA has been shaky, jerky and sloppy.
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IDS27 left and 15M right, KLOD is yellow line. O/N PA is all buying and vertical, may see pull back to KLOD for retest near or during O/R. Just do not expect much from Reg Session with any stall outs. Watch NVDA, TSLA and GOOG today as these 3 have been used to pump the NAZ.
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This chart will show 2 Air Pocket Shorts (white arrows) and the 1 set of Yellow are setting up a Long. Called Long above 18030 on Friday. The prior move was Short when Lower Air Pocket was charted below TZ of 320-345. This move will most likely go back up and then sideways in the range and do nothing.
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Good Luck today, key day for the week and prior to Fed Day. Yellow Zone is Potential Open Range at Reg Session open (1st 30M). Red Box with Mid Line is O/N Range. Look for ML O/N (18166) and KLOD (18130) to be in play an any drop, no drop just keep going with the BTD's and FOMO's.
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FYI, 18430 is adjusted YTD high (without NQ contract change 150 point gap). 18430 is KL to watch and Short at No Pass.
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200 point O/N move, NAZ has a hard time moving 20 points in Reg Session but can go 100-200 in O/N with ease. Just watch the Long Trap near any stall out and move up your stop if you took Friday Long Call.
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Under 18285 may Pull back and back above may try as high as 18385. O/N pre Open lift to rescue, again. O/N continues to redirect and confuse everyone. Stay long unless you see strong Push/Pull price action. PB's are expected and are not Short's.
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10YN Update, still dropping
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200 plus O/N Prop + Monday should equal a crazy BTD/FOMO rally to the Moon. If not the get your Shorts out. BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Slight Divergence on IDS27 and Lower indicator is looking upside down. Many of you know how this will play out. Let it go up as it will not come back. In next day or so, it usually gives it all back. That may be Fed Day.
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Back later, nothing has changed. The Sunday/Monday O/N lift is just another Drop Offset for a volatile week and a cushion for any drop that may come. Friday was Long set up and typical, sideways to higher is direction with another O/N lift should this not drop prior to the Close. 298 is O/N high and NAZ needs to stay above.
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O/N prop once again with 1st hour or so with Snail PA and sideways. O/R and O/N High is range, Drops will be bought all day and will need major stall out for any Short trade. 4HR Update
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KL 18385 Hit may wiggle some.
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NAZ inside yellow arrow zone and upper with no break out, watch for pull backs.
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Under O/N High may drop to Line below.
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NAZ is at bottom of O/R and arrows are potential moves.
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Long Trap From Top after O/N Prop Up. 280 needs to hold or typical trick here.
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18284 is KL above or below here
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Long above 18284 with tight stop for Long back to day high or 320 then 360
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4 HR
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215-25 and above should pop back up and is most likely a Long Trade into the Close and O/N.
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Plan is 260 to 360 and into O/N Prop Rally Drop Offset prior to Fed Day Drop. Long Trail it Up and wait for break out, not sure NAZ will go to lower range of Break Out Zone.
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Needs to pass 298 and up and away into the O/N magic land world of Long Only Price Action.
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IDS27 Long Signal or Nasty Head Fake, have to be Brave with your decision. One of them is on the way. I picked Long into Magic Land.
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Should the NAZ not rally by the Close and stay under O/R, we may see a lower move on Tuesday. Stop on long is 260
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270 is KL here on last move, Long above and short below for pull back short.
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320 rejection is a short signal
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Past 320 and retest from above should be a trip to The Magic World on Long Only PA (99.99% of the time).
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I am out for the day, just notice how the NAZ is rotating near the O/N high and sold off after the O/N and 1st 30M of Reg Session. 10YN is moving lower like a sloth, not sure what is going on there.
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Mild close after big O/N run up. The O/N rally retraced the Friday drop and normal for a Monday. NAZ will need to pass 18320-25.
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Monday O/N drop zone for Pop up for Tuesday.
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O/N Long above 18154, Mentioned that the upside down indicators would give the lift back in next day or so. A Bounce may happen in O/N by Open.
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On Hold or bounce 18200 is target.
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Needs to pass 18200 or will drop back
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18154 Long Call good for 100 point in Magic Land of Long. Today play the O/N range and break out with white or yellow arrow. 288 and above is strong long and 175-55 is strong short. If you have noticed, the calls I make typically run for about 100 and then go sideways or to counter move.
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KLOD today is 18223
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PA seems to have strong Long moves that go nowhere and just shake out the Shorts. Entry - Target - Get out, look for Push/Pull today and if so, stay Short.
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Good Luck today, KL 18173 Long needs to pass 18200 1st.
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173 to KLOD looks like inside range (inside O/N) to watch.
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5:40 am ct, 18180-90 break out is move of the day and stay with it. Looking Long.
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BTD/FOMO Day, Trail it. Needs to pass 18200
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18200 rejected. Try and give the moves 100 points before you shake yourself off. The other idea today is a strong aimless push/pull day. Will be choppy inside O/N Range.
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18122 needs to hold on drop
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Above 18122 should retest 18180
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KL 18154 and under may be stop clean out prior to move higher should NAZ not keep dropping. Drop/Pop Set up for Open, just watch the range here. O/N rarely stay down. 122-54 is range here
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Should low hold, potential W play back in the channel.
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Narrow Open Range, Long above ML O/R 18100
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167 is ML o/N Range and may reject
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Above O/R may pop passed 18175 and drop under
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Needs to get passed channel and KLOD
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KL rejected and may send NAZ back in O/N Range
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4HR
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Once again you can see that the O/N PA is misleading and the Reg Session has redirected. The best strategy is to do the opposite after the 1st 30-60M and the redirect will usually play out. INSANE.
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BTD and FOMO still alive, VIX will not move.
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320 is next upper target
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Indicators are upside down again, may drop again.
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May be range for O/N and pre Fed, U-Turn again just above 960, may need to hit it one more time.
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So far Mon/Tue have stayed inside range or Main Yellow Arrow. Looking for break out tomorrow after Fed Decision. The move may move 1 way stall and redirect. Looking up - stall - drop.
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Tuesday O/N, NAZ is only 20 points above O/N High and under Monday Reg Session High. Careful on potential Long Trap during O/N or after Open Drive drop/pop on Wednesday
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Shaded Zone above has Long selling wicks and may be easy for O/N to get up and in, if so look for reject when heavier volume resumes.
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3/20 Fed Day, O/N is now trying above KL 18288 and into the sell zone, has bounced off 18235 a few times. 18320 is 1st target/test in sell zone range. Look for the Open Drive to push the NAZ out of this zone if still in. No Push out, BTD/FOMO until Fed Release. Notice that NAZ is riding the lower channel line, watch the move away from this and if up the ML or upper channel is in view.
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30M, white arrow below are air pockets that usually get followed by a drop. This may trick the BTD/FOMO's
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YTD Daily, showing slight slant of lower trend (currently).
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I do not trade on Fed Days (typically). Since yesterday Dead Zone rally UP the NAZ has had 6 direction changes above 18220, today's KLOD is 205. I would say Long above and Short below but the wiggles will be so wide at release time. Today may have extreme 100-200 point direction change move and not really go anywhere. That move may come in off session or Open Drive of following day (when volume can support the filling of larger orders). Good Luck and No Fed No Rally, BTD/FOMO Forever, Stimulus, Bail Outs, QE and AI. Long Long Long until all are aboard.
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Watch for PB's to 320-310 and 275. These may drop back into yesterday O/N Range or retest and bounce to ML Channel. Pre Open Volume is average to lower then normal so this may be a Pump/Dump or provide a slight pull back.
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330 high pulled back to 290 and is range for Open, NAZ is strong sell zone for now and Open Volume may let lift some and then drop it back lower.
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290 drop here is retest for Long on hold or NAZ will head south some back in O/N Range.
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Watch ML O/R
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350 break will drop
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250 break not 350, 280 here may be hook short or pop up
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Just watch the Dead Zone Head Fake Long here.
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Volume is way off today, may see quick direction change.
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Now under 290 will drop to 250 or retest 290
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Garbage day, Fed Release is the move, NAZ staying inside O/N and O/R. Back Later.
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Out of Flag will move.
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As you can see the O/N lifts while the Reg Session sells off. The Reg Session lift yesterday was just back to O/N high. The NAZ may tank soon if O/N stops the only upward movement. This has been the pattern for far to long.
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Looking for Hook Short under 280-90, should it get through on Long side, I will not be surprised but feel it will sell off on stall out.
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Sell Zone above KL 288 did reject Loft above, watch reaction should the NAZ retest above.
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Long above and Short below this TL
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Watch for a hook on either move, back later
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What is just hilarious is how the move will NOT wiggle and just shoot in 1 direction at 1st. Example is UP. We use to see huge 2 way moves at the release. Now typically it is up 1st and then maybe a pull back later.
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The above is not a call, the move may be the opposite direction with Hold and then Pop back up.
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Exactly, every time.
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ALL FOMO 1st and drop 2nd, today or tomorrow. Just hilarious.
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Back is Strong Sell Zone 320
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Under 320 may not get back above, need to watch. And above then O/N and Knee Jerk did its job.
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18550 is upper target and this can come back on a stall out
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Volume is Normal, just do not chase if not on.
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470 may reject it some
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1% Fed is actually a bad sign, need to see this hold or increase or will drop back.
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About 200 point pop , look for half to come back and retest.
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Too Easy, I actually did not trade today. Just Too Easy. All up and sideways, we will see some downward PA.
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March 19th, Tuesday W Call. May go to upper channel or stall and com back some.
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3/21, The typical predictable PA continues to play out. Most have been wrong and are out of sync with the PA flow. The chart below will show the 7 day (struggle to get lower) decline and the 2-3 retracement. If go back to 2023 you will see this and how the O/N was used most of the time or points. 2022 just struggled to get lower and had the most O/N lifts back up after most declining days. We are in a range until we take out recent high and hit the upper channel. Now until then we may see a drop should the NAZ stall out. The other fact, when at a major news release all trades are Long and there is zero to no wiggle, just up. If you go back and view previous key days, you will notice these strong 1-way moves and these have been a huge part of the gains. Most of these have happened 1 hour prior to the Reg Session Open. The FOMO is strong and getting a bit euphoric. KLOD today is 18417, white arrows on 4 hour are Long moves after struggling drops.
Daily Chart
4 Hour
Daily Chart
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BTD/FOMO Forever, QT is tightening (until next QE) and AI is the answer to everything (for now). So today we will just have to see if there is ANY selling in the 1st 30-60M of Open, that is the next key.
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30M, O/N range, Orange is FA and yellow arrow is range for break out. Try to find a equilibrium of Price up here, Strange and part of Rig Lift due to Contract change last week.
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Yesterday NQ volume was the lowest in past 6 days, FYI. Just watch the Pump/Dump, I am not Long or buying this lift and did not trade yesterday. Back after 1st hour of Reg Session. Here 594 had retest for pop back up to 640-50 and break under 594 will try 570 ML O/N
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594-644 is range to watch
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Take profit at KL 644 and look Short for PB or wait on Open.
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Divergence at 18665, may drop or pop here.
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865-75 retest and move from is next move.
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644-675 looks like Stop clean out for drop test at Open and O/N ML Retest
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NAZ with 600 2 day and 400 1 day pop, look for PB of 100-200
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Upper KL's for break out or rejection and retest lower.
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Been using IDS27 and 5M for moves
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Have fun today, Keep in mind that the NAZ usually has a hard time getting much higher than O/N High or O/N Range. Should that change we will go higher to upper channel.
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18644 is KL to watch today, Long above
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Long near 644 and take profit on stall, will retest and pop up or break under eventually.
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O/N is the Boss, so far and Reg Session s is garbage and tomorrow is Friday so any drop will be bought.
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Typical slight Dumping of Pump and rejected at O/N High, Trapped now. and Friday will have to push back up in not today.
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Back later, Flat after 1st trade to 644
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FYI, Volume is normal.
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18667 is KL for rejection or not
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Today you may want to wait for Break out of Open Range. Or play range to range trades until break out.
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18687 retest high may be the Short set up here and will be KL to stay Short under. NAZ appears to be rolling over. Can Go long to, just watch 667
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644 retest from under here
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NAZ still inside KL's, no strength. This usually a Long Signal.
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Dead Zone Rally when the NAZ looks tired, Long Signal as usual
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Indicators are getting upside down and no movement, can easily see big move either way. May see sideways to higher until the close so the O/N can pop it up. Reg Session can not lift this up, so far. back Later.
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This PA is just strange, I am afraid to go long or short, not kidding. Something is on the way, let it play out.
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On drop here above KL 605 may be good for a O/N Long Trade set to target the upper Channel for Friday Rally. Just uses a stop. Pick one and why would it Drop ??
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You would think that the ML O/N and ML Channel would support the next move up (if the NAZ is truly Bullish)? If not, look to O/N to try or Friday Dead Zone for this move back up.
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Above 18580 should try for 18667, may be in final few minutes. If trying uses a stop on Long just in case.
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Just watch the VIX and the Typical Friday play may not play out should the VIX move up. For now looking LONG back to O/R levels for retest.
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3/22 NAZ is taking out the FA (failed auction). Many time the next move is in the opposite direction. Just notice the struggle to get lower on any decline, this is usually followed by a rocket back up and since it is Friday with a Holiday next Friday you may this long attempt at some point.
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The VIX is up 1%, keep an eye on that.
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IDS27 with 5M
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KLOD is 612 today
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Mentioned yesterday and Fed Day that the Volume was low on FD and also yesterday. That is odd as FED day was all buying on not high volume. May e nothing or may see selling side as the exit is underway, just watch the BTD/FOMO stall outs.
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FA Zone is cleaned out
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Careful as 2 Mag 7 are in trouble, Apple is off and Tesla is way lower. 2 of 7 that have lifted this are struggling and should 1 or 2 more go flat (not even drop), the NAZ will be in some pain.
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18520-30 needs to hold on POP
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Shorting the NAZ on a Friday is usually not the move.
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Today you can see how the 3% NVDA is pumping any dropping FAANG
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Volume is lower so we may see FA Lifts by the close, it is Friday.
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Needs to pass 595
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Once again the NAZ staying inside O/N range and nothing new. Reg Session is sideways in the range and needs to break out.
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KLOD 605 and the a pass would try 668, KLOD rejection is back to 530
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605 Hit and KL for next move, Pass here could go to Top Channel my Monday. Yep, that is how it is done, all O/N and weekend PA. Or this gets a hard rejection back to Low.
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So failed auction below earlier created the Lift and now at 18615 is drop to new FA below or pass and retest above. Friday's usually just keep moving up to prior KL's. Not the case would be a quick drop near the Close.
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Back later, it seems that the sellers are waiting until the NAZ gets back up to highs or there just are no sellers. This is just not normal and will change at some point. Longs are easy and Shorts just struggle.
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Lowest Volume of past 10 days and back in O/N Range, Have a Great Weekend and next week is short with 3 day weekend so look Long on any mid week drop and go Long near Thursday.
Trade closed manually