NAZ moved up 500 points in the last week of June and Q2, did so on a lower volume Friday with decent portion from O/N PA. Since May and many previous (past 10 years) the post May lift's have been consistent. Usually will retest at some point prior to next move up. The noticeable change over the years has to do with up bias (regardless of reality) coming in/near off sessions (Futures O/N, Holiday's and slow months). Since white TL (2020) the NAZ has retraced back to TL and near recent top. The Yellow TL with yellow arrows will show the same run up, 1st was 15 months and 2nd was 6 months. The NAZ will travel quick in old territory and will struggle when trying to gain new territory (on the up side). Look Long above Circle and Short below for the Retest that should show up in Q3. Lower Target is 14700 (U-Turns near 850 need to stop) or 14200 providing we hit 14700 with no games (O/N, off session U-Turns).
Comment:
Range with KL's for next week, will update as we go through 3rd Quarter. NAZ is nowhere new, trying to pull you into the most likely Long Trap that will show up prior to next Leg higher.
Comment:
The white arrows are the PB to TL, you can see the similar patterns. Notice the grinder days higher vs fewer days lower (and less distance). The speed and distance of recent 6 month run is quick and possibly too quick, much of which has come in O/N and off session.
Comment:
Next few days, play in the SZ's
Comment:
Fed minutes later, NAZ did play in SZ's and may retest upper 15325
Comment:
1st trading day of Quarter, may see heavy volume and some push/pull with dip/drop testing. Depending on the reaction of BTD's/FOMO's strategist's, we may see a PB to 15200. Last week was lower volume with many out or off, may be few days until full load of firms working. Depending on lift stall out that may turn into deep drop. Looking for limited upside and more movement on tests lower.
Comment:
Targets for Open Drive and Dead Zone. Use KL Opposite Direction trades today.
Comment:
15340 Long above and Short below.
Comment:
Range for break out
Comment:
Today was pent up BTD/FOMO since we had a few days off. Look for NAZ to stay in Grey area and may break below 300 and retest 200 should any rally stall out after 300 bounce.
Comment:
Target Hit and 200 should be next after BTD/FOMO attempt
Comment:
FOMO Long Scalp, Break of red TL should try for 340-50. Watch 266 and above.
Comment:
15200 Hit, Long back to 15250-70
Comment:
15266 is Long Target above 15160 Double Hit.
Comment:
No hold at 15160 3rd hit, NAZ should hold and move back up to 200-250 at Mid Channel 15100. 200-240 are FA's that usually attract the NAZ.
Comment:
Above 15164 should try for 15200-40. The FA Zone is key to next drop and should come prior.
Comment:
15163 and above, here come the FOMO's
Comment:
15191 was best so far on retracement. May fall back or retry, play 150 -200 for now.
Comment:
Circle is Target and potential U Turn
Comment:
NAZ got to 220, may fall back now.
Comment:
15244 and under is a Short
Comment:
15215 - 15190 is range to watch and look for a drop under 15240
Comment:
U Turn Zone as Target is hit
Comment:
M Forming. NAZ with typical O/N drop and Dead Zone Pop. May see some 1 way lower movement should M Form out.
Comment:
M Play, In O/N the NAZ will have to retest 195 and stay under TL
Comment:
15195 Hit and Open Range is Yellow arrow. Strong Long or Short outside the range. Red TL (Diablo) will help with guide.
Comment:
TLX Hit may see drop here
Comment:
TLX Drop back to Open
Comment:
Next week we should see Circle test and Danger Zone (Yellow Line). Watch for NAZ to get under Diablo (Red TL). Watch for U Turn at DZ.
Comment:
Current Chart as of 7/11, 4 & 1 HR
