Going with a Weekly view as we start to some Smart Money players get in the game. Sometimes you need to zoom out in order to see the bigger picture. The Post will include intraday (1HR) and Daily 3 YR chart for analysis. Red diagonal TL's (Diablo) and Red horizontal (TLX's) are TL's that are Key Levels (KL's). Yellow TL was the Short form level that was mentioned in the 9/13 Post, also mentioned the M forming. Danger Zone is Box 15383-15106, you may expect a U-Turn here (not unusual and usually in Overnight to start). Oblong Circle is the Contract Change Gap or "Air Pocket". Red Dotted is 2nd Short target from 15682 and 2nd U-Turn level. White arrow is move back on hold and Yellow is next Leg lower. Not expecting all this week, may play out over balance of September. 13150 is start of "Buy in May" on light volume with much in O/N and few key days. Most likely just a Drop Offset for potential moves to 15239, 15106, 14877 or 14416. I would be surprised if we retest any lower than 14877 (Expect a massive U-Turn here). TLX's are reliable for turn zones from both directions. KL this week is 15239. Friday was Triple Witch with positive Delta (while NAZ was dropping), strange day and could be Head Fake lower (pop next). Use Post for lower targets if NAZ is ready to drop. Friday had 2-3 15M periods that accounted for most of drop, during the Open & Dead Zone. Good Luck this week and I will try and update as I see major moves developing or near Open or EOD.
Daily Chart
IDS20, notice Friday's clean intraday PA vs prior days.
NQ 9/8 - 9/12, Intraday PA
Daily Chart
IDS20, notice Friday's clean intraday PA vs prior days.
NQ 9/8 - 9/12, Intraday PA
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1 HR
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Monday Range with 15387 as KL to watch. Expect Drop/Pops for Long test and Pop stall outs will drop. O/N just weak with zero Rig Strength.
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No Fed No Rally, Pattern is O/N Up, Open Range/Drive lower and Dead Zone up. 15416 is pre Open KL for drop at no pass. Good luck today, will check in later.
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BTD/FOMO trapper/test move.
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416 Short should hit KL 317 for 100
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340KL to 387 KL with 280 on lower end. OR may drop/pop or reverse depending om 1st move/test.
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Intraday price action is very jerky, NAZ may just pop higher like a flash, careful on the short side. Need major stall out for a drop.
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TV Data feed looks bad, FYI
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Flat Volume too low to trade, wait until 11am ct and after should Dead Zone float up.
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Trading the markets has become a sad joke., as compared to prior Fed, Gov't involvement.
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All shake out moves, 340 was 1st long, 365 was near retest and past 387 got near 464. look for bounce back up or expressway lower. Inside Open Range is likely lower by OED.
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Expressway
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Will update more tomorrow. A Flat Monday is pretty odd, so look for o lower O/N and Tuesday into Fed Day.
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Nothing new as NAZ has not gone anywhere and can not unless Propped up in the O/N. Slight pop at Open with stall out and drop. BTD/FOMO's may step in and jack it up some, so look Long 1st.
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Danger Zone U-Turn may be in play (15380), you can feel it coming.
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Typical pattern is that the NAZ will jack up prior to Fed Day and be used as a Drop offset (should Fed Day be negative). Usually will happen after 1st 30-60 minutes, during Dead Zone.
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Diablo Pop
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240 should hold for pop back up to 300
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300 pass is 340
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Bottom NOT cleared and may retest, just play Top, Mid and Bottom of 1stM (Open Range). 300 may reject and send it back down, if not the 340.
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262-340 is range to play.
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300 Hit and 340 Next, no pass will drop back lower
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So far TLX 15239 is developing the Called U-Turn on Monday. This may travel back to 15682 if stays above. Expect retest during Fed Day Shake Out.
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Needs to pass Diablo
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So far the TLX U-Turn is the play and seems to be following the white arrow and may go back up to upper target. I normally do not trade on Fed Day, Good luck today.
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Rejection at KL 15506 could be a Strong Short, this Key Level was the start of the decline in 2022.
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Yesterday's Price Action was odd with the fact that the heavy selling pre Open and 1hour or so was retraced with a Dead Zone lower volume easy lift. Still hard to tell who is in control. Today's O/N lift only retested KL 15340. Point is that if the OR (Open Range) sells off, it may not come back. If OR lifts then may see heavy selling at higher prices by the same sellers that sold here. The O/N and Dead Zone PA is just not that creditable and is usually a set up for a larger counter move.
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Orange Zone is a FA (Failed Auction) zone. Usually these act as targets and then reverse. Pop/Drop could be the play should the OR 1st move be up.
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KL of the day is 15398. 15387 - 15435 is Range to watch for Open. 15400-500 is a major retest for back up, no pass of this zone could be a retest of TLX 239 or major drop.
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O/N produced the High and Open seems to be powerless, look for drop if O/N high is not passed and kept above.
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No Strength, This is when the Dead Zone will come in just push it higher. If not then we may see major drop as the NAZ needs the O/N and Dead Zone to keep it up.
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Open Range / OR was dead on, look for break out.
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Range is 430-330 and 380 is Mid, can go either way, I pick lower as the O/N and Dead Zone are only times this thing gets a lift. Rigged, thinking Smart Money will flush out noise.
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U Turn or bust
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Nu U-turn and NAZ is Yellow arrow.
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15106 may bounce.
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Pretty sure that the O/N Rig Team will step in at 15106 Tonight. They have been rigging for a year and a half, why stop now. They just do not ever sell, must be a Long here or O/N low of 15090.
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15015 or 14877 are KL's to watch
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14990 should pop for 100 points, 14955 is next low, if not.
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Most FAANG had larger losses yesterday vs O/N. May see 1st move higher at Open. 100 points from here with lower end being 14913.
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15106 is near upper target for a retest prior to lower drop. U Turn is expected by EOD Friday.
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No U-Turn and on target. The NAZ has been lift on fumes and low volume since May. Now the Real Players are back and things are harder. The Whippy price action is going to stay and selling lifts will happen more, the VIX is already moving up some (which is crazy).
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U-Turn attempt by tomorrow, we will see. O/N Magic Prop Dust may appear.
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Friday, this is how the U Turns start and can go all the way back to mid or top of drop, range or channel. Stay Long above low or retest of low.
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Should the low retest not hold, then this is a Strong Short and the NAZ has left the building, channel and range. That would be very bad and is partly why the O/N has jacked it up some. To offset or provide some cushion.
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Upper target is near some Failed Auctions and would set up a great 2nd Short should it stall there. Orange Zones are FA's.
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Yellow lines are new TLX's, use for next week.
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Good luck today, going Private. Friday's usually float up like an air balloon, if that does not happen, look Short.
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5 Day drop could be retraced in 2 or lower we go.
Trade closed: target reached:
No Fed No Rally, No Strength NAZ played inside 2 TLX level. Next week will break out in 1 direction, mixed signals here.
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9/25, No Public Post today. Try to play KL to KL with Stop just under or above. These have been best entry/exits for weeks. The PA has moved like it is programmed to hit test and retest KL's. Major KL's have also been reliable for trend direction and changes. Friday struggled to stay up and had 6 direction changes. No Prop Sunday is not good and should Monday Regular Session not lift/hold, we may see strong move lower.
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Friday 14913 KLOD would have been the break to look Short after the NAZ stalled above at 929.TLX was Target and lower Target are the FA's, a hold here is a Strong Long.
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14820 Hold at 10am CT is a Long and Potential U-Turn Test
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14820, Long needs to pass 14895
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Under 895 is strong Short
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Caution is that the weaker the PA the higher it can go at this time of day, then you have O/N lift that usually happen. After all that the NAZ could drop near Open or keep going. Part of U Turn so be cautious on any Short
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840 may be a Strong Bonce??
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Any bounce may tray 975, no bounce then 740 is lower target
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Bounced off 840, 950-75 is Long target, NAZ will break KL 913 after 860 retest bounce
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NAZ may fly up in O/N Tonight.
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Final 2 Minutes 14913 Break to 940, 840 Long to 940. Typical Sneak Move near O/N, should climb and may be U -Turn.
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Tuesday 9/26, Blue Box is NTZ No Trade Zone, wait for break out
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14740 Long to 817
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Tight stop
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U-Turn day may be near or in works today as 14740 Long was Large Failed Auction Zone.
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765 is add to Long, stop at 735
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Should U-Turn take off, may cause a Short Covering Pop.
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Double Bottom at low today
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760-725 is shake out zone or next drop.
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TSLA 1st to turn up .55%
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Struggle to get lower, worth the risk on Long as it may POP. PA is odd today and drop has no power.
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NAZ may try and retest Blue Box Zone
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Shorts may start to cover now. Hang on.
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Let it ride, 765 break is the KEY here
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U-Turn target above 750-65, place stop under just in case.
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NAZ will try 730 or 805, place stop accordingly.
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NAZ Flipped to Long side at 11:45 am CT
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Just watch shake outs as they will be all over the place.
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730 retest mentioned earlier.
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662 is lower support, Algo's on this one. Multiple direction changes.
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Staying Long and will Hold, not feeling the real push lower. May not want to follow on this one. Seems like a Long Set up rather than Strong Short.
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This is when/how the Edge trades really happen, not for veryone.
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14696 is KL for 1st support.
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740 should be tested either way if Long or Short. 740 t0 696 or 696 to 740
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Strange day and not feeling anything with these moves, we need some Fed or backstop stimuli to get the intraday PA doing faster, stronger moves. This is like trading a snail that is riding a turtle.
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This is how it starts, then runs in O/N. Watch the final 2 minutes. Anyway, the NAZ will have to get higher in order to free up some orders/contracts to sell. So up and the down is most likely.
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Terrible day, at Vertical TL the selling PA started to look very very weak. The NAZ then popped up to area. The next move with strength should be higher 14840 Likely
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O/N Rig Pop U-Turn, arrow is range and may see drop to lower for pop by Open. Or, Upper with drop test at Open.
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KL of the Day is 14740, Orange Zone is Upper Target for U-Turn High. O/N Rig Pop off fake drop of yesterday is setting up Long Retest. 740-765 is range to watch for break out.
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Strange Struggle near 765, Open may be 2 way prior to any lift higher. May be Long Shake out or Head Fake to Short move.
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Watch Red TL for rotation around on low side.
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14696 KL no hit is long above and will try 14740, 63, 83 on way up
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Diablo hit and hold is usually Bullish, FYI. Needs to pass 14776 to get really going.
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Lower Target hit, follow the arrow up as this may have been a drop test, may retest but doubt it.
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Long above 740 for now, KLOD, Key Level Of the Day
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Just like yesterday when I was looking Long into the O/N, this is a set for potential Long Trade. Struggling to really get lower. May see turn around by EOD.
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So the idea may be that the selling is feeding the buyers so they have contracts to take higher as the accumulate and leave the sellers out (at the best price for a Long). This is a sell off buy kind of flat.
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14685, NAZ will need to break 696 and stay above 660 in order to retest Open Range bottom 750 and Mid OR 775. Passing Mid OR will get NAZ moving higher. Hang in there other markets are turning positive and this may be just a MOP up prior to move higher.
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Month end and Quarter end plays may have been playing out past few days. Mostly 1 sided, may flip by EOW, next few days.
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Coil Spring Pop by EOW.
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Mon- current of Intraday PA. 14800 is is heart of next retest zone or area to break through. NAZ struggles to get lower but will FLY Up like a Rocket on any LONG. Needs to retest above at this point.
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Diablo retest and potential break 665
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Red TL is Diablo
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Bullish Divergence at 14600, Shocked if NAZ does not move up 100-150 points.
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So far, good for 120 and broke Diablo. This is what a U-Turn day looks like,
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No pass at 785 is take profit
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Coil 1st POP
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50 candles down and 2 back up, Not Rigged (really). Block all NOISE watch the PA. Have a good one, may update a new post by tomorrow. O/N Rig show should have a field day with Pump Action tonight.
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14900 is Upper Target for next day or so or O/N and potential Short Zone
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Closed at 14785, this is garbage
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Garbage
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14696 KL Trade Long if you dare
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Anyway, today's range had the best trade at the Edge. once one is established, wait for 2nd and trade to and from. Mid Range trades are low probability.
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725 no hold will drop under 740