I had been shorting NIO stock due to the very apparent downtrend as portrayed by the 50 and 100 EMA. However, I noticed that the swings from high to low were getting narrower, signaling a loss in momentum. Throwing some zones on the chart, you can see a small trading range has formed.
I compared the Wyckoff accumulation schematic to the NIO chart. The schematic calls for hard selling followed by strong buying and consolidation. In NIO, there was hard selling in March and May, with strong volume. This indicates that there were large interests selling their shares during this time.
However, in November 2022, we saw a selling climax with strong volume. This was followed by a bounce in price called the automatic reaction (AR). This bounce is likely due to institutional investors buying up the supply. The secondary test, which occurred on expectedly lower volume, further supports this theory.
The millionaire-making question is whether we have seen an ST in phase B. If we have not, it is likely that the trend will continue lower to the sub-$5 range. However, if we have seen an ST, it is likely that we are seeing a spring. A spring is a shakeout before institutional investors decide to take the stock higher.
I think it is important to note the increase in volume during the month of May when the spring started. High volume during a spring suggests that big money is scooping shares for cheap. I believe that this is the perfect time for institutional investors to swoop in and use earnings as an excuse to push the stock higher.
What are your thoughts?
I compared the Wyckoff accumulation schematic to the NIO chart. The schematic calls for hard selling followed by strong buying and consolidation. In NIO, there was hard selling in March and May, with strong volume. This indicates that there were large interests selling their shares during this time.
However, in November 2022, we saw a selling climax with strong volume. This was followed by a bounce in price called the automatic reaction (AR). This bounce is likely due to institutional investors buying up the supply. The secondary test, which occurred on expectedly lower volume, further supports this theory.
The millionaire-making question is whether we have seen an ST in phase B. If we have not, it is likely that the trend will continue lower to the sub-$5 range. However, if we have seen an ST, it is likely that we are seeing a spring. A spring is a shakeout before institutional investors decide to take the stock higher.
I think it is important to note the increase in volume during the month of May when the spring started. High volume during a spring suggests that big money is scooping shares for cheap. I believe that this is the perfect time for institutional investors to swoop in and use earnings as an excuse to push the stock higher.
What are your thoughts?