It looks like we are forming a W on the 4-hour chart, marked with the green arrow symbols. If this continue to form and price hit the current resistance level of 39-40, then we should see 3 scenarios to play out based on the trendlines and resistance levels. Considering that price is under 200 MA, the second scenario has the highest probability to play out but you can't be certain.
The first and the best case scenario (green arrows) is that NIO smash the first resistance level and goes straight to test the second resistance area at around 48. Then, there would be a quick retraction and then moves back up to test the previous ATH. This is optimistic but not too far out of reach.
The second scenario (red arrow) is that NIO will form the W and goes on to the second resistance area but fails to break out and settles down at around $20 price point. This is more likely because price action is under 200 MA, and we are still in a bearish market. Not to mention, yields are predicted to hit 2% soon which will contribute to our current down trend.
The third and ugly scenario (blue arrow) is that, today was a bull trap and NIO won't even make it beyond the first resistance level and keep going down to hit the major support area around $20. This one depends on how fast yields are going to go up. If we reach 1.9% next week, then this is how NIO and the rest of EV market will go down.
This is not a financial advice and I am not a financial expert. But one thing I understand is that the market is unpredictable and in many ways random. Random means there are too many factors involved in forming an event that mathematically it is impossible to predict the outcome. There is no "science" or legit way to predict the market, but there is its delusion. Some analyst misunderstand probabilities and luck with their expertise, which is sad because that is the kind of mentality which would hurt them eventually. Be humbler. Just some common sense stuff!
Thank you
Sam
The first and the best case scenario (green arrows) is that NIO smash the first resistance level and goes straight to test the second resistance area at around 48. Then, there would be a quick retraction and then moves back up to test the previous ATH. This is optimistic but not too far out of reach.
The second scenario (red arrow) is that NIO will form the W and goes on to the second resistance area but fails to break out and settles down at around $20 price point. This is more likely because price action is under 200 MA, and we are still in a bearish market. Not to mention, yields are predicted to hit 2% soon which will contribute to our current down trend.
The third and ugly scenario (blue arrow) is that, today was a bull trap and NIO won't even make it beyond the first resistance level and keep going down to hit the major support area around $20. This one depends on how fast yields are going to go up. If we reach 1.9% next week, then this is how NIO and the rest of EV market will go down.
This is not a financial advice and I am not a financial expert. But one thing I understand is that the market is unpredictable and in many ways random. Random means there are too many factors involved in forming an event that mathematically it is impossible to predict the outcome. There is no "science" or legit way to predict the market, but there is its delusion. Some analyst misunderstand probabilities and luck with their expertise, which is sad because that is the kind of mentality which would hurt them eventually. Be humbler. Just some common sense stuff!
Thank you
Sam
Comment:
Going down toward $20 per share, and it's going fast!
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice and all posts are for educational purposes only.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice and all posts are for educational purposes only.
