Nifty Analysis, Important Levels and Intraday Trade Plan Aug 21
1) Monthly trend is up
2) Weekly retracement is progress, RSI at 60, make or break zone.
3) Fib 23% retracement at 19250 – which is done already
4) Fib 38% at 18789 – very important as it is Monthly swing top demand level.
5) Daily – Crucial support at 50 EMA. RSI < 40. Has not been broken since March rally from 16800 bottom.
6) 4H sitting at 100 EMA crucial support. Has not been broken since March rally from 16800 bottom. Only small sign of reversal is the inverted hammer that has been formed, but it would be active only if it has a follow through candle.
7) 75 minutes timeframe shows 200 EMA breakdown.
8) 75 minutes Timeframe shows a price pattern of descending triangle price pattern.
9) 75 minutes Timeframe also shows a double bottom price pattern with bottom in the range of 19250-19300, a break of the descending triangle support zone is probable, hence there is a probability of 700 points of down move from here, which points to 18600 area. Only if 19300 breaks and sustains for more than 75 minutes. There is also a probability of reversal from 19300 zone.
10) A reversal for an up move would be confirmed only after a strong Daily close above 19600 levels. For positional basis. For an Intraday basis, one may consider if the price sustains strong above the 19480 zone.
Hence Nifty is at a Major Make or Break zone.
Intraday Trade Plan :
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Supply zones are marked in black
Demand zones are marked in green
Market opens flat-
1) May be price would pick the demands at PDC , PDL , consolidate and move till supply levels, majorly PDH zones. Better to Ignore the consolidation and break upside move as there are too many supply zones unless consolidation and breakout happens in PDL / PDC zone itself.
One may also enter if PDH is consolidated and taken out.
2) Price may consolidate at PDC TO PDL and break PDL, a great opportunity to trade consolidation and breakdown from PDL, 19250 breakdown till 19200, 19199-19183.
One may look for close entries to 19250 for PE side entry.
Market opens gap down -
1) If the gap is small, within 19200, price may fill the gap, and then consolidate and then breakout or breakdown, will wait for price action, take a breakout or breakdown trade, If breakout then till PDC , then PDH. If breakdown then till Day Low then to next demand zones as per PA.
2) If the gap is huge, less than 19200, it may most likely continue to move down to 19139, then consolidate further for next movement, one may wait to either trade trend continuation at key demand zones or trade reversals from the demand zones, either of which based on Trade setup confirmations.
Market opens gap up -
1) Price may come in for gap filling and then consolidate and break up or break down, will ignore break up trades, will trade a breakdown trade with price pattern consolidation break down confirmation for a target of PDC / PDL.
2) Price consolidation and breakout moves at 19387/PDH zone can be considered for a move till 19470 zone.
Please trade at your risk, all views for educational purpose only.
Happy Trading!
Recipe for a Successful Trader - Rules for Entry, Risk Management for Exit and SL, Discipline in all Aspects, Zero tolerance to Overtrading.
2) Weekly retracement is progress, RSI at 60, make or break zone.
3) Fib 23% retracement at 19250 – which is done already
4) Fib 38% at 18789 – very important as it is Monthly swing top demand level.
5) Daily – Crucial support at 50 EMA. RSI < 40. Has not been broken since March rally from 16800 bottom.
6) 4H sitting at 100 EMA crucial support. Has not been broken since March rally from 16800 bottom. Only small sign of reversal is the inverted hammer that has been formed, but it would be active only if it has a follow through candle.
7) 75 minutes timeframe shows 200 EMA breakdown.
8) 75 minutes Timeframe shows a price pattern of descending triangle price pattern.
9) 75 minutes Timeframe also shows a double bottom price pattern with bottom in the range of 19250-19300, a break of the descending triangle support zone is probable, hence there is a probability of 700 points of down move from here, which points to 18600 area. Only if 19300 breaks and sustains for more than 75 minutes. There is also a probability of reversal from 19300 zone.
10) A reversal for an up move would be confirmed only after a strong Daily close above 19600 levels. For positional basis. For an Intraday basis, one may consider if the price sustains strong above the 19480 zone.
Hence Nifty is at a Major Make or Break zone.
Intraday Trade Plan :
----------------------------------------
Supply zones are marked in black
Demand zones are marked in green
Market opens flat-
1) May be price would pick the demands at PDC , PDL , consolidate and move till supply levels, majorly PDH zones. Better to Ignore the consolidation and break upside move as there are too many supply zones unless consolidation and breakout happens in PDL / PDC zone itself.
One may also enter if PDH is consolidated and taken out.
2) Price may consolidate at PDC TO PDL and break PDL, a great opportunity to trade consolidation and breakdown from PDL, 19250 breakdown till 19200, 19199-19183.
One may look for close entries to 19250 for PE side entry.
Market opens gap down -
1) If the gap is small, within 19200, price may fill the gap, and then consolidate and then breakout or breakdown, will wait for price action, take a breakout or breakdown trade, If breakout then till PDC , then PDH. If breakdown then till Day Low then to next demand zones as per PA.
2) If the gap is huge, less than 19200, it may most likely continue to move down to 19139, then consolidate further for next movement, one may wait to either trade trend continuation at key demand zones or trade reversals from the demand zones, either of which based on Trade setup confirmations.
Market opens gap up -
1) Price may come in for gap filling and then consolidate and break up or break down, will ignore break up trades, will trade a breakdown trade with price pattern consolidation break down confirmation for a target of PDC / PDL.
2) Price consolidation and breakout moves at 19387/PDH zone can be considered for a move till 19470 zone.
Please trade at your risk, all views for educational purpose only.
Happy Trading!
Recipe for a Successful Trader - Rules for Entry, Risk Management for Exit and SL, Discipline in all Aspects, Zero tolerance to Overtrading.