NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw choppy moves between 18200 and 18400 and finally broke the barrier at 18470 to close near the high of 18500. Last week’s Hammer seem to work perfectly and the Index is gliding towards the potential first target of 18600 and possibly the next Fib projection of 18720.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 330 points viz. between 18178 and 18508
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  
• Monthly candle closing and Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• The index has made primary base at 18060 followed by another base at 18200.
  
• Index may find supports at 18370,18240, 17120 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18590.18640,18750
  
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Additional interesting observations

• As observed in the previous blog index has cleared the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), and 18251(Jan 23 High),18350(Jan 22 High)
  
• The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a monthly close below 18k
  
• The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18450-600 with hurdles on every 100 points starting 18180
  
• There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
  
• 17126-17221(far away for now)
  
• 16650-16770 (far away for now)
  
• 16360-16560 (far away for now)
  
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Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17700
  
• Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18750 and support at 18240 with a Pivot at 18520
  
• A word of caution
  
• Index has made higher highs and lower lows
  
• As discussed in the previous blogs, Daily charts show a Hammer candle and has potential to move towards 18600 which is under progress
  
• A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH. As noted in the previous blog, the index has been making alternate bullish and bearish candles for the past 6 weeks. We can expect a negative candle probably after hitting 18700
  
• Expected to remain in the range of 17240-18700 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• A daily close below 18240 would see the Index drift towards 18K and possibly 17900
  
• Expect a tuff fight during the week as the monthly closing candle
  
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#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.