The past week witnessed an attempt to break from the top of the downward sloping channel. The close at 17945 is at the cusp of the channel top. The Index appears to be consolidating at a higher range. However, it lacks the required momentum to stay above 18K in the first attempt after the deep sell-off happened during the previous month.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Index managed to post higher highs and higher lows which is seen as positive
Additionally, if manages a daily close above 18040, there are chances that it scales previous month’s peak of 18250
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17850, 17740, 17620 and the index could face resistances at, 18050, 18140, 18250
Expected to remain in the range of 17620-18250 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Additional interesting observations
The base seems to have shifted to 17600 which is the long term trend line support
However, there would be series of hurdles at 18080,18150, 18250
Final Note
The index seems to have weathered the storm due to panic selling of major corporate group stocks and the dust appears to be settling down
Interestingly the Index has managed one attempt to cross the downward sloping channel from the top. The weekly close is around the trend line
From the daily charts it appears that the Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 17270 and top at 17930
Till either of this is breached we may see a consolidation
FIIs have turned net moderate buyers and the DIIs also moderate buyers
The ensuing week has potential for making good the losses sustained in the last week of Jan 23 as we do not see major risk events scheduled for the week
Most likely scenario could be a range of 17620-18250
We need to see a daily close above 18250 for further gains towards 18520
Monthly option expiry is likely to trigger choppy moves on either side
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
- The index moved in a range of 415 points viz. between 17719 and 18134
The oscillators are showing mixed signals
Monthly expiry due during the week and Option OI to drive the market direction
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Index managed to post higher highs and higher lows which is seen as positive
Additionally, if manages a daily close above 18040, there are chances that it scales previous month’s peak of 18250
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17850, 17740, 17620 and the index could face resistances at, 18050, 18140, 18250
Expected to remain in the range of 17620-18250 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Additional interesting observations
The base seems to have shifted to 17600 which is the long term trend line support
However, there would be series of hurdles at 18080,18150, 18250
Final Note
The index seems to have weathered the storm due to panic selling of major corporate group stocks and the dust appears to be settling down
Interestingly the Index has managed one attempt to cross the downward sloping channel from the top. The weekly close is around the trend line
From the daily charts it appears that the Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 17270 and top at 17930
Till either of this is breached we may see a consolidation
FIIs have turned net moderate buyers and the DIIs also moderate buyers
The ensuing week has potential for making good the losses sustained in the last week of Jan 23 as we do not see major risk events scheduled for the week
Most likely scenario could be a range of 17620-18250
We need to see a daily close above 18250 for further gains towards 18520
Monthly option expiry is likely to trigger choppy moves on either side
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.