The continuous failure of the main Index Nifty to hold above 18100 coupled with Monthly expiry related option exposure brought down the levels to 17900. The final hope of 17770 breach was triggered by media reports on governance issues relating to one of the major corporates. The penetration was deeper due to multiple stops getting triggered both on Main index and the Bank Nifty. Nifty ended up with a bearish candle on the weekly charts.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
Though closed at 17607, every spike is expected to be sold-off
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17460, 17350 and the index could face resistances at 17770, 17840, 17940
Additional interesting observations
Below 18k and below 17960 the most likely scenario could be test of lower levels towards 17070 over the course of next couple of weeks
Expected to remain in the range of 17320-17940 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Final Note
Our apprehension in the previous Blog that for any reason the support at 17770 breaks, then we may see a deeper fall which has happened
The crucial zone of 17770-17860 would become a resistance zone
With just two sessions for the monthly closing candle and the with the kind of negative sentiments prevailing, the Index will face herculean task to scale 18k or higher.
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move
17320-17430
16650-16770
16360-16560
(These are risk zones which might pull the Index down)
Just a couple of sessions/weeks make markets to change perceptions
We have been highlighting the below scenario all through the month of Nov and Dec 22
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
The present scenario seems to be suggesting a deeper correction which can only be negated if the Index can manage to close above 18100 in the first couple of sessions which appears to be a remote possibility, at least for now
Volatile week ahead
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
- The index moved around 708 points viz. between 17493 and 18201
The oscillators are showing negative signals
17770-880 will become a resistance zone
Though closed at 17607, every spike is expected to be sold-off
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17460, 17350 and the index could face resistances at 17770, 17840, 17940
Additional interesting observations
Below 18k and below 17960 the most likely scenario could be test of lower levels towards 17070 over the course of next couple of weeks
Expected to remain in the range of 17320-17940 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Final Note
Our apprehension in the previous Blog that for any reason the support at 17770 breaks, then we may see a deeper fall which has happened
The crucial zone of 17770-17860 would become a resistance zone
With just two sessions for the monthly closing candle and the with the kind of negative sentiments prevailing, the Index will face herculean task to scale 18k or higher.
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move
17320-17430
16650-16770
16360-16560
(These are risk zones which might pull the Index down)
Just a couple of sessions/weeks make markets to change perceptions
We have been highlighting the below scenario all through the month of Nov and Dec 22
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
The present scenario seems to be suggesting a deeper correction which can only be negated if the Index can manage to close above 18100 in the first couple of sessions which appears to be a remote possibility, at least for now
Volatile week ahead
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.