In my post yesterday, I had said
1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move.
2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish .
3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
Nothing changes in the view. Again today's price action more of consolidation above the current high broken.
My trades today
From initial candles, I assumed choppy day and sold near the top of the range and squared it off near previous high breakout.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed 0.53% higher. It was typical low range choppy day.
2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.46% lower. Again 2nd day of divergence in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
3. VIX is down -2.79%. Market players are assuming lower movements in the coming weeks.
4. NSE breadth on positive side. 31 advances to 18 declines.
5. Option data suggests 10400-10600 as congestion zone with definitive upper bound of the range to be 11000.
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I'll do a detailed post about my view for next week over the weekend, but here is the sneak peek...
Overall, I sense that the current up move started 10194 on June 25 is likely to be last move before market regime changes. That simply means there are two probabilities ahead
1) New regime is a low volatile time correction. So NIFTY chops around in tighter range, with low inclination, , very low inclination. It could be small up or small down when you take sum of 2-3 months. This is similar to what happened in early part of 2019.
2) New regime could be resume of bear market and we may see fall towards sub 9000 levels rapidly.
Difficult to see the point where this regime change happens but, my view so far is NIFTY is very near in 200 points vicinity of the same.
Have a nice weekend!
1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move.
2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish .
3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
Nothing changes in the view. Again today's price action more of consolidation above the current high broken.
My trades today
From initial candles, I assumed choppy day and sold near the top of the range and squared it off near previous high breakout.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed 0.53% higher. It was typical low range choppy day.
2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.46% lower. Again 2nd day of divergence in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
3. VIX is down -2.79%. Market players are assuming lower movements in the coming weeks.
4. NSE breadth on positive side. 31 advances to 18 declines.
5. Option data suggests 10400-10600 as congestion zone with definitive upper bound of the range to be 11000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll do a detailed post about my view for next week over the weekend, but here is the sneak peek...
Overall, I sense that the current up move started 10194 on June 25 is likely to be last move before market regime changes. That simply means there are two probabilities ahead
1) New regime is a low volatile time correction. So NIFTY chops around in tighter range, with low inclination, , very low inclination. It could be small up or small down when you take sum of 2-3 months. This is similar to what happened in early part of 2019.
2) New regime could be resume of bear market and we may see fall towards sub 9000 levels rapidly.
Difficult to see the point where this regime change happens but, my view so far is NIFTY is very near in 200 points vicinity of the same.
Have a nice weekend!