FXCM

NGAS Upside Risk on Supply-Demand Dynamics

Long
FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas prices have been dropping over the past four months due to progress on renewable energy and hot weather being among the drivers. However, market could become tighter this year, with slower supply growth and an acceleration in demand, while key US drillers have slashed their 2024 outlook. Further Middle East hostilities after the Iranian hit on Israel, could affect traffic and push prices higher.

On the technical front, the rejection of the EMA200 (black line) 23.6% Fibonacci of the 2024 high/low slump, make it vulnerable to new multi-year lows (1.523-13). Improving supply-demand dynamics though, can support a recovery towards the 38.2%, to what is a difficult technical path.



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