from the weekly chart, clear breakout.
Fundamentally, debt ceiling funding hasn't impacted equities. From what I understand, when TGA is replenished and Fed continues QT - liquidity should start draining the system which should bring equities down...but until then there is still liquidity.
technically, Fib levels are revealing and on point. If this is a 3rd wave in Elliott terms, we have much higher to go and this looks like a 3rd wave.
Wave 2 was deep, so wave 4 should be shallow.
Wave 2 took about 4 weeks, so I'm guessing wave 4 taking about 4 weeks also
To maintain a 3rd wave impulse, we don't want to see price touch $13874 before completing the 3rd wave. If that happens, its a different structure.
Fundamentally, debt ceiling funding hasn't impacted equities. From what I understand, when TGA is replenished and Fed continues QT - liquidity should start draining the system which should bring equities down...but until then there is still liquidity.
technically, Fib levels are revealing and on point. If this is a 3rd wave in Elliott terms, we have much higher to go and this looks like a 3rd wave.
Wave 2 was deep, so wave 4 should be shallow.
Wave 2 took about 4 weeks, so I'm guessing wave 4 taking about 4 weeks also
To maintain a 3rd wave impulse, we don't want to see price touch $13874 before completing the 3rd wave. If that happens, its a different structure.
Trade active:
For the 5th wave , I think we want to stay above $14,217. I we go below that...this impulsive wave may be an A-B-C pattern and we won't make new highs.
So I'm temporarily bearish toward $14217. We want to see a strong move at or near this level to complete 5th wave. Should take about 1-3 months - depending on how the 5th wave unfolds. It should unfold as a ending triangle.
Honestly, I hope I'm wrong because the wave after a 5th is a sharp and powerful decline...and you know what that means.
So I'm temporarily bearish toward $14217. We want to see a strong move at or near this level to complete 5th wave. Should take about 1-3 months - depending on how the 5th wave unfolds. It should unfold as a ending triangle.
Honestly, I hope I'm wrong because the wave after a 5th is a sharp and powerful decline...and you know what that means.
Trade active:
Wave 2 was a simple yet deep retracement, Wave 4 looks like it'll be a shallow and complex retracement IF we have a wave 5 advance. So far nothing is showing anything but a wave 4 developing. Technically wave 4 is complete with an A-B-C pattern. We should head higher shortly. I'd rather see a move and bunce off $14324
Strong wave 5 underway. No idea how to count the waves up, But am looking for a top near $16587. Let's see if we get a small A-B-C pattern with A starting around $15990 - $$15533,