Light moves in Q4 for a possible santa rally

Comment: 9/16
high 2yr yields with respect to the assumption that the fed starts cutting rates in the first two quarters of 24'. Earnings coming in October with strong economic data since july (pmi, manufacturing index, retail sales, etc.) along with big spending holiday seasons coming. Equities might be sideways or in a wedge til then and break out for a santa rally toward the end of the year towards 17k.

see updated chart

Comment:

NDX has been respecting this .786 fib level for the past few months,

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100 DMA holding up, Ive noticed this week that the market is moving away from the bad news is good news mentality, jobs are strong, cpi up slightly, retail and business sentiment up also

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bottom of this down-channel/bull flag today

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fed pause, 2 year and dollar crash today, what is stopping this from breaking the top of this down-channell/bull flag,

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oil crashed and now we have a break of that pattern in the intraday, otherwise we dont have a rate decision until 12/13, it will only be odds until then playing in the fixed income market. lower bond yields would boost stocks, in addition to any strong consumer data we can get and minus any inflation surprises.

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25bp drop in the two year over the past few days and people are still seeing cuts in the first quarter of 24'. the only thing stopping this bull run past 17k would be strong recessionary pressures, but will the fed be able to stimulate the economy again?

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closed at all time highs today

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dollar is rising into a downtrend, makes no sense for a trend break on DXY with us going dovish on rates while the rest of the world states that they dont want to let up on QT just yet. add some profit taking and we can see sideways til the march meeting.

Comment:

depending on macro data coming out