Natural gas 2023 outlook: Approaching a key confluence zone
The recent price action in the daily
NATURALGAS
price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs.
The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross pattern on November 10, which proved bearish after a brief rally to $8.04/MMBtu.
In the summer, natural gas completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, falling below the $5.30 price support. That technical pattern was preceded by negative RSI divergence between April and June 2022, which also led in severe bearish price action to the $5.30 support level.
The double bottom in October and July, as well as the significant technical resistance between November 2021 and March 2022, signal a very critical confluence zone for natural gas.
The $5.30 critical support line is an important test for natural gas prices, which would have dropped by a recession-like 47% from their peak in August.
If the war in Ukraine persists, it is quite improbable that prices will return to the $4.3 level, where they were trading on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Bulls may therefore reappear if the $5.3 support line and $5 psychological level are tested.
On the upside, it is unlikely that the skyrocketing price levels observed in the summer of $9.5 or more will be retested anytime soon, as they coincide to an unprecedented supply issue in Europe that triggered an increase in US domestic prices due to increased LNG exports.
In the first quarter of 2023, a sideways market trend with prices ranging from $5 to $8 appears to be the most likely scenario for US natural gas. The colder the winter. The more severe the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the greater the possibility that prices will trade between $6.5-8 range. Rising recession risks and warmer-than-average temperatures, on the other hand, could prevent a depletion in gas reserves, keeping prices under pressure.
NATURALGAS
price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs. The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross pattern on November 10, which proved bearish after a brief rally to $8.04/MMBtu.
In the summer, natural gas completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, falling below the $5.30 price support. That technical pattern was preceded by negative RSI divergence between April and June 2022, which also led in severe bearish price action to the $5.30 support level.
The double bottom in October and July, as well as the significant technical resistance between November 2021 and March 2022, signal a very critical confluence zone for natural gas.
The $5.30 critical support line is an important test for natural gas prices, which would have dropped by a recession-like 47% from their peak in August.
If the war in Ukraine persists, it is quite improbable that prices will return to the $4.3 level, where they were trading on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Bulls may therefore reappear if the $5.3 support line and $5 psychological level are tested.
On the upside, it is unlikely that the skyrocketing price levels observed in the summer of $9.5 or more will be retested anytime soon, as they coincide to an unprecedented supply issue in Europe that triggered an increase in US domestic prices due to increased LNG exports.
In the first quarter of 2023, a sideways market trend with prices ranging from $5 to $8 appears to be the most likely scenario for US natural gas. The colder the winter. The more severe the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the greater the possibility that prices will trade between $6.5-8 range. Rising recession risks and warmer-than-average temperatures, on the other hand, could prevent a depletion in gas reserves, keeping prices under pressure.