The NATGASUSD is in long-term Bear Market with price trading below the 50 and 200 and 800 week emas. The 50 week ema is currently trending down slightly, though price has finished up a sideways correction. A small degree five waves down has completed, so a bounce is likely back to the 30 ema.
Looking at the Long Term chart, price tends to spike up when the economy and stock market trend down. Conversely, the price of natural gas tends to drop when crude oil goes up in price. This makes sense from a Supply perspective with more Nat Gas available when more crude oil drilling takes place. Though from a Demand perspective, it’s backwards. With the Fed doing QE, pumping money into the markets, the price of Natural Gas should drop. This perspective matches up with the Elliott Wave count.
The Market is in a Long-Term Bear Market on the daily, with price below the 50 ema, the 200 ema and the 800 ema. Price is below a long-term trend line and has yet to put in a bottoming pattern. A measured move down would take price to 2.027. We’re still in an downtrend as long as we close below the 13 ema at 2.272.
The Market is in a Bear Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 ema. Price would have to close above 2.230 to be considered in an upwards correction. That could happen today. We should expect a rally here into the 2.354 to 2.461 range.
Based on the above, the plan would be short on a rally to the daily 30 ema, with a stop above the 50.
This is my NATGASUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Looking at the Long Term chart, price tends to spike up when the economy and stock market trend down. Conversely, the price of natural gas tends to drop when crude oil goes up in price. This makes sense from a Supply perspective with more Nat Gas available when more crude oil drilling takes place. Though from a Demand perspective, it’s backwards. With the Fed doing QE, pumping money into the markets, the price of Natural Gas should drop. This perspective matches up with the Elliott Wave count.
The Market is in a Long-Term Bear Market on the daily, with price below the 50 ema, the 200 ema and the 800 ema. Price is below a long-term trend line and has yet to put in a bottoming pattern. A measured move down would take price to 2.027. We’re still in an downtrend as long as we close below the 13 ema at 2.272.
The Market is in a Bear Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 ema. Price would have to close above 2.230 to be considered in an upwards correction. That could happen today. We should expect a rally here into the 2.354 to 2.461 range.
Based on the above, the plan would be short on a rally to the daily 30 ema, with a stop above the 50.
This is my NATGASUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.