It is simply a very bad risk/reward to be long of tech index at this level.
Look at the weekly. It looks even worse than SPX. The Monthly Kijun (especially the forward looking) is a hard resistance for this market. Weekly Kijun is well below Monthly Kijun.
Will there be rate cuts in the US? No. Even if rates market priced in the whole tightening cycle, I am pretty convinced FED will hold base rate for a very long time. Meanwhile money supply shrinks, and US consumer will geat weaker, economy is heading into recession, soft or hard landing I don't care, corporate earnings will come lower.
That's it, all other technical reasoning is similar to the linked post on SPX.
Look at the weekly. It looks even worse than SPX. The Monthly Kijun (especially the forward looking) is a hard resistance for this market. Weekly Kijun is well below Monthly Kijun.
Will there be rate cuts in the US? No. Even if rates market priced in the whole tightening cycle, I am pretty convinced FED will hold base rate for a very long time. Meanwhile money supply shrinks, and US consumer will geat weaker, economy is heading into recession, soft or hard landing I don't care, corporate earnings will come lower.
That's it, all other technical reasoning is similar to the linked post on SPX.
