a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq
Good evening and i hope you are well.
Bears got good follow through today but i think they need one more red day to switch the market to always in short. What are the odds of that? Well, markets normally don’t go from bull trend to bear trend but one could argue we are in a trading range at the top. So it’s not out of the question. But the more probable scenario is that bears will get disappointed tomorrow and we range more days at the highs.
nasdaq
Pretty similar to dax but bears pushed it down more but also at bigger support now than dax.
bull case: Bulls see this as a two legged pullback and now a low 2 at the daily 20ema and multiple bull trend lines. They see this as a great buying opportunity at the fair price (average price) and want a retest or now ath above 17794. On the 1h chart they also see 3 clear pushed down today and they managed to produce an expanding triangle which is trading range behavior and not bear trend behavior.
bear case: Bears see the gap on the daily as a sell signal and they want to break out of the bull channel/wedge. First target below the daily 20ema would be the 50% pullback at around 17050.
short term: sideways to up - i doubt bears will get their follow through tomorrow and we test at least the 1h 20ema again - currently around 17400. 1h close below 17200 and i will look for shorts for 17050ish
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: short from the open - 15m 20ema was good here and selling the fed pump to 17480
Bears got good follow through today but i think they need one more red day to switch the market to always in short. What are the odds of that? Well, markets normally don’t go from bull trend to bear trend but one could argue we are in a trading range at the top. So it’s not out of the question. But the more probable scenario is that bears will get disappointed tomorrow and we range more days at the highs.
nasdaq
Pretty similar to dax but bears pushed it down more but also at bigger support now than dax.
bull case: Bulls see this as a two legged pullback and now a low 2 at the daily 20ema and multiple bull trend lines. They see this as a great buying opportunity at the fair price (average price) and want a retest or now ath above 17794. On the 1h chart they also see 3 clear pushed down today and they managed to produce an expanding triangle which is trading range behavior and not bear trend behavior.
bear case: Bears see the gap on the daily as a sell signal and they want to break out of the bull channel/wedge. First target below the daily 20ema would be the 50% pullback at around 17050.
short term: sideways to up - i doubt bears will get their follow through tomorrow and we test at least the 1h 20ema again - currently around 17400. 1h close below 17200 and i will look for shorts for 17050ish
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: short from the open - 15m 20ema was good here and selling the fed pump to 17480