2024-04-24 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

overall market comment
Bulls got excited again and calling for new all time highs after a 3 week selloff. Well today was the expected disappointment for the bulls, after euphoric bears got disappointed last week. That’s what markets do after wild moves. No one knows where it’s going and market is looking for the fair price (average price if you will). It’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement before another trend up or down (I do think bears are heavily favored).

nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: after hours puke is freaking amazing.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 17200 - 17800

bull case: Bulls tried their best today to keep this a trading range above 17600 but after hours is puking bad. 17800 was a reasonable spot for a pull back and also good to take profits or get rid of underwater longs from late bulls. They have to keep the market above 17500 or 17400 is probably next again. On the daily they could get a second leg up for another test of the daily 20ema around 17900, which then would also form a reasonably good looking bear channel. Interesting end of the week tomorrow and probably signal bar going into next week.

bear case: When in doubt, zoom out. Daily chart tells the story better than lower time frames. I have drawn the wave thesis 2h before us close and boi did that hit. Painting says it better than my words can. I expect another retest of the lows, then another lower high to form a two legged pull back on the daily chart before we sell off for w3.

short term: Sideways to down - Invalid above 17700. Targets below 17400 and then 17200

medium-long term: Same as sp500 - Clear start of the new bear trend. Will cover this with wave thesis and targets in weekly outlook.

trade of the day: Big liquidity grap bar 34+35 got me stopped out but I’m stubborn and got back in. Caught the big move down. One had to get short latest below bar 39.


Sorry for the chart picture but I have no idea why tradingview wont render it properly in the posted idea - so had to insert screenshot