a daily price action after hour update - gold
Good evening and i hope you are well.
bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are > 1%. Bulls now want a break above the bear wedge from today and trade back to 2180 to test higher prices. I’m unsure if we will find more buyers than sellers there but if you look at the daily chart, the move last week was so strong that bulls are obviously still in full control of the market.
bear case: Today was the second day where the Globex open was the high of the day and bulls are not stepping in enough. Was 2202 the high? Could be but the sell off is weak. Bears need to do more and get follow through tomorrow. Market also formed a bear wedge which could break above and market is probably expecting a retest of 2200. If bears can keep it below 2180, bulls might take more profits and we get lower prices. Also there is the slight possibility of today being W1 and we get a measured move down to around 2120 but again, this is very low probability.
short term: Sideways to up but 2200 could continue to be big resistance - invalid below 2150
medium-long term: Down to at least 1850 over the next 2 years — unchanged
trade of the day: selling near the 1h 20ema since bulls could not close above and buying 2160 since bears could not close below - sounds fishy but look back at charts and see how many times that’s a profitable strategy on the day.
bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are > 1%. Bulls now want a break above the bear wedge from today and trade back to 2180 to test higher prices. I’m unsure if we will find more buyers than sellers there but if you look at the daily chart, the move last week was so strong that bulls are obviously still in full control of the market.
bear case: Today was the second day where the Globex open was the high of the day and bulls are not stepping in enough. Was 2202 the high? Could be but the sell off is weak. Bears need to do more and get follow through tomorrow. Market also formed a bear wedge which could break above and market is probably expecting a retest of 2200. If bears can keep it below 2180, bulls might take more profits and we get lower prices. Also there is the slight possibility of today being W1 and we get a measured move down to around 2120 but again, this is very low probability.
short term: Sideways to up but 2200 could continue to be big resistance - invalid below 2150
medium-long term: Down to at least 1850 over the next 2 years — unchanged
trade of the day: selling near the 1h 20ema since bulls could not close above and buying 2160 since bears could not close below - sounds fishy but look back at charts and see how many times that’s a profitable strategy on the day.