a daily price action after hour update - sp500
Good evening and i hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again.
bear case: Pullback was shallow as expected. Unexpected was the selloff into the close again. My thesis was, this is profit taking end of quarter and i expect more trading range price action tomorrow. If the low probability case happens and we see bigger profit taking, it could actually become a big pullback from near the ath. But i will only look for shorts when we close a 1h big red candle below 5300.
short term: Neutral going into last trading dax of the quarter. Absolutely everything is on the table for tomorrow, from melt up 5400 to big profit taking to 5280.
medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. —unchanged
trade of the day: Buy near 5300 and sell above 5312 , worked since yesterday late in US session.
sp500 e-mini futures
bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again.
bear case: Pullback was shallow as expected. Unexpected was the selloff into the close again. My thesis was, this is profit taking end of quarter and i expect more trading range price action tomorrow. If the low probability case happens and we see bigger profit taking, it could actually become a big pullback from near the ath. But i will only look for shorts when we close a 1h big red candle below 5300.
short term: Neutral going into last trading dax of the quarter. Absolutely everything is on the table for tomorrow, from melt up 5400 to big profit taking to 5280.
medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. —unchanged
trade of the day: Buy near 5300 and sell above 5312 , worked since yesterday late in US session.