a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futures
Good evening and i hope you are well.
I was totally already writing the update with the most annoying small trading range price action in mind (obviously not the dax) but then the bears used the power hour to extend the range downwards. If anything i’d guessed we close near the open. Interesting going into tomorrow and if bears can generate follow through or at least keep bulls below the lower highs.
sp500
bull case: Still a rather weak bear flag and daily 20ema is still 50 points away. If the bulls are still eager and strong, they wont let the gap close to 5250 or let the market reverse Wednesday’s breakout. If we trade below, i expect them to buy more strongly around the lower bull trend line 5220ish. I do think the sell off into the close today was unexpected.
bear case: If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, market for sure will retest 5324. If we get follow through, next targets are 5250 and 5220. There is a less than 5% chance that the market will break this bull trend line on the next touch. Best bears can probably get is a trading range 5250 - 5324. Measured move from the bear bar into the close is around 5240, which is also where the trend line could be, depending on the time we arrive there.
short term: Neutral - means sideways. If bears won’t step it up, we retest 5300 and higher. Invalid below 5220. Then next would be the bull trend line (depending when we reach 5230) and below that is 5200. —unchanged
medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. i expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well.
trade of the day: Deadly price action for your account if you gamble and are not comfortable with small trading ranges. I think the odds from bar 17 to today’s 7, were clearly bullish and bar 8-11 was just a pullback. I think market was expecting to trade above 13+14 again because the range was so tight and the bull leg before was strong enough for a retest 5300+. That could be a reason why 17 was so strong, many traders cought on the wrong side and quickly gave up. How do you trade it? Either you are good a small scalps or don’t trade it at all. Other possibility could have been, you were short from bar 8 or at least short from above 5290, then you could have hold just into close. But who is short from there, when market is clearly bullish.
I was totally already writing the update with the most annoying small trading range price action in mind (obviously not the dax) but then the bears used the power hour to extend the range downwards. If anything i’d guessed we close near the open. Interesting going into tomorrow and if bears can generate follow through or at least keep bulls below the lower highs.
sp500
bull case: Still a rather weak bear flag and daily 20ema is still 50 points away. If the bulls are still eager and strong, they wont let the gap close to 5250 or let the market reverse Wednesday’s breakout. If we trade below, i expect them to buy more strongly around the lower bull trend line 5220ish. I do think the sell off into the close today was unexpected.
bear case: If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, market for sure will retest 5324. If we get follow through, next targets are 5250 and 5220. There is a less than 5% chance that the market will break this bull trend line on the next touch. Best bears can probably get is a trading range 5250 - 5324. Measured move from the bear bar into the close is around 5240, which is also where the trend line could be, depending on the time we arrive there.
short term: Neutral - means sideways. If bears won’t step it up, we retest 5300 and higher. Invalid below 5220. Then next would be the bull trend line (depending when we reach 5230) and below that is 5200. —unchanged
medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. i expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well.
trade of the day: Deadly price action for your account if you gamble and are not comfortable with small trading ranges. I think the odds from bar 17 to today’s 7, were clearly bullish and bar 8-11 was just a pullback. I think market was expecting to trade above 13+14 again because the range was so tight and the bull leg before was strong enough for a retest 5300+. That could be a reason why 17 was so strong, many traders cought on the wrong side and quickly gave up. How do you trade it? Either you are good a small scalps or don’t trade it at all. Other possibility could have been, you were short from bar 8 or at least short from above 5290, then you could have hold just into close. But who is short from there, when market is clearly bullish.