ES (S&P 500) 2nd Half of Jul and Week of Jul 17th Outlook

So far the market hasn't shown it doesn't want to go lower. Now that we are in the 2nd Half of July and some Sell-side Liquidity has been taken, I anticipate a move up to rebalance price. For next week starting July 17th we have an ATR of 215 which could put us around the 4060-4080 range in terms of expansion. We have several gaps to fill above and some buy-side liquidity resting above. Key levels next week I can see are 3900, 3920, 3950, 3980, 4015/4030, 4050, 4080.

For the rest of July if the bullish expansion is to continue we have an ATR ranging between 360-400. This could put as an expansion between 4085 and 4125. If price can break and stay above 3920 between now and the end of the month, then we may see the full expansion to the 4085-4125 area.

Key events and data coming up for the market in the 2nd half of July: Tech & Bank Earnings, Housing Starts & Building Permits, Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Fed Interest Rate Decision, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Spending and Income.

Comment:

I forgot to an another important level. This was an omission. That level is 4000.

So far 6 levels have been hit in the analysis. The last three and above will require lots liquidity to do so. However next week we have lots of economic news so they may or may not come to pass.

Comment:

All initial level have been hit from the 2nd Half Jul Analysis. Thanks for tuning in.

If we are to switch to a bullish run on the HTF then we have to take out 4200 next month, retrace in the 4120's and then keep the part going. Let's see what August (month before quad witching) brings.

If not then the bears will be next up to bat.