a weekly price action after hour update - oil
Good Morning and I hope you are well.
WTI Crude Oil
bull case: Still inside the bull channel but market get’s more two sided trading. I can’t see another strong leg up but more trading range price action between 80-85. 85 Should be the max here and the very big triangle will probably play out over more months. Upside is probably very limited here.
bear case: Bears doing enough to make this two sided and bulls refrain from buying too high. Market will probably test the daily 20ema soon, which is around 80.64 and around the lower bull channel trend line. Invalid above 85.
outlook last week: “Neutral - Sideways to up probably. We could range more and get a small second leg down but not lower than 78. Then a retest of the high is expected.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 80.63 and now we are at 83.02. Bulls stronger than expected but I gave those targets months ago and clear invalidation points for bulls and bears.
short term: Neutral again. Market is high enough here at 83. I see 85 as max and we will probably see more profit taking here and a pullback to the daily 20ema. So valid targets in both direction means neutral for me. Below 80 I turn bear again.
medium-long term: Bullish targets also met for me here. Big triangle still playing out and I’m only interested in shorts here. I wait for market weakness.
WTI Crude Oil
bull case: Still inside the bull channel but market get’s more two sided trading. I can’t see another strong leg up but more trading range price action between 80-85. 85 Should be the max here and the very big triangle will probably play out over more months. Upside is probably very limited here.
bear case: Bears doing enough to make this two sided and bulls refrain from buying too high. Market will probably test the daily 20ema soon, which is around 80.64 and around the lower bull channel trend line. Invalid above 85.
outlook last week: “Neutral - Sideways to up probably. We could range more and get a small second leg down but not lower than 78. Then a retest of the high is expected.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 80.63 and now we are at 83.02. Bulls stronger than expected but I gave those targets months ago and clear invalidation points for bulls and bears.
short term: Neutral again. Market is high enough here at 83. I see 85 as max and we will probably see more profit taking here and a pullback to the daily 20ema. So valid targets in both direction means neutral for me. Below 80 I turn bear again.
medium-long term: Bullish targets also met for me here. Big triangle still playing out and I’m only interested in shorts here. I wait for market weakness.