#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oil
Good evening and i hope you are well.
wti crude oil
Here my commentary from last week:
If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily.
The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet.
Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84.
Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits.
outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout
short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.
medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
wti crude oil
Here my commentary from last week:
If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily.
The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet.
Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84.
Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits.
outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout
short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.
medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.