2024-04-25 - a daily price action after hour update - oil

wti crude oil
comment: Market is making marginally higher highs on the 1h tf but it’s a reasonable triangle we are in. I think it will chop some more inside before another breakout and I think that will be news related/event driven.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 80-86 but converges inside 82-84

bull case: Bull legs inside the range look stronger (1h tf or lower) but they are not gaining much higher prices for now. If they could break 84, we will almost certainly see 85 and maybe 87 again.

bear case: On higher time frames bears are still in control below 84. We are at the triangle top and they want to trade back down here or they risk retest of 84/85. Market is wildly ranging with prominent tails above and below candles. Need very wide stops to trade this.

short term: Sideways to down - Two legged correction as drawn in pink

medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged

trade of the day: Bulls turned 82.5 into support and the bar 12 was strong enough to go long above.