Just last night, I was evaluating my posts by simply going as far back as October and pressing the "play" icon on my charts and was not short of amazed at how they played out. I even played the first one for my 9-year-old..."cool?," she asked, uninterested in what helps finance her horseback riding lessons? They actually don't pay for her riding lessons. I frequently "take profits," but have never taken profits out of the market, simply reinvesting them to accumulate more tokens and coins. Technical analysis works. I've mentioned a dozen times that the trickiest part is "function of time," and of course navigating Covid, BTC, and Evergrande type scenarios. That being said, today, it all comes down to BTC testing/holding $46k in the next couple of hours. Whenever BTC tanks 10%, alts like MANA, ENJ, will almost double in volatility. Conversely, the rebounds are equally explosive. BTC support is huge at $46k and about 2% away. MANA has an equally significant support a little over 3% away around $3.20-$3.26. After taking holiday profits yesterday, I was hoping to get back in at $3.52, accumulating a few thousand tokens with this move. Well, that wish came true and it continued to drop. That's the crypto game and by this time tomorrow, it won't even matter. On a good note, since I was predicting a $0.40 correction, and it was 1am when I made the decision to go to sleep, I only reinvested 30%. This is another good lesson for new traders. Never put all your eggs in one basket...dollar-cost averaging is a great way for newbies and pros to safely enter a market. So, sit tight, this will be all better in the hours/days ahead. $2.80, $3.02 are other support zones should BTC head to $42-44k area. Keep an eye open as $3.30 also offers significant support, we may not see a drop to $3.20's. Another silver lining to today's drop is that BTC blew right through $49k. Should it have really stalled (it did a little), it could have formed a devastating Head & Shoulder pattern, that would have triggered greater potential losses. It's tricky to think this way, but sometimes a larger short-term drop is favorable depending upon the bigger picture we draw from market indicators. This is not financial advice.
More "Non-Advice" for new traders:
-Do your research. Don't listen to 99% of what you hear in the media. Know the product you are investing in.
-Don't panic...it will always retrace a 2nd time...you didn't miss out.
-If you missed out, do more research and create a new position.
-Consult a financial advisor, especially when it comes to Capital Gains.
-Diversify. Just like the traditional stock market, Crypto has facets of different functionality from a store of value, to platforms for projects, to the companies that create the projects, NFT's, metaverse, etc... Block-chain will have just as profound an impact as the www. had. I used to think 15% of an investment portfolio should be in the crypto space. I have since bumped that to 30% and during a bull market, I personally, liquidate assets to make it 50/50. Again, talk to a financial advisor. Hodl some of your assets. I know too many people who "trade it all." Crypto is volatile enough, this is not Vegas.
-Be patient. Rule of thumb, any industry with a market cap of 1billion isn't going anywhere. The government can regulate, but they can't get rid of said industry. You'll notice that when Facebook was going to come out with their own token 18 months ago, the U.S. government didn't abolish crypto, they certainly crashed it, they learned about it because they recognized the technology and interest behind it and have since educated themselves and invested in it. Crypto isn't a $1b industry...on a $h!t day like today, it is still $2.25trillion.
-Musk, Cuban, China, Buffet: Yes, unfortunately, the market responds to silly tweets and posturing. Know that you didn't miss out. Crypto is still in its toddler years.
---Follow the money. When Cuban was knocking crypto a couple of years ago, he was also accepting it at his sports arenas and buying the short-term dips that his tweets created.
-Continue to research. If you want to trade, start with monopoly money. Most exchanges offer a free "training academy." Read Bulkowski. I was compiling data for 9 months before I realized he had already done it for us.
-Don't invest more than you can lose
-Always be prepared, whether it is for a spike or correction, always have a plan(s) for your next move(s). If you don't have a plan, you are increasing your risk significantly.
-resist FOMO
-Patience (again). There are no straight lines up or down. There are zig-zags up and zig-zags down. If an industry is growing, your money will grow with it. Lose the get rich quick mentality. I've done very well with crypto, but it wasn't overnight. Weathering storms, taking new positions during a bear market, knowing what I'm investing in, and patience, like anything, will prove more successful.
-Treating crypto like a Craps table will give you the same odds as Vegas...the house will win eventually.
-Don't look at the charts all day long...that is a micro trend. Always zoom out and look at the big picture.
-Stop losses. If you bought BTC at $20k in 2017/2018 and still had it at $5k in 2020, you missed out on a better position that would have been created through setting a stop loss. Research how to use the "average true range" when setting a stop loss. Bull runs don't last forever.
-Don't lose sleep. At the end of the day, it is just money. If you are losing sleep over your investment, you are probably overextended in your investment or at the very least not looking at the bigger picture.
Good luck.
-Joe
More "Non-Advice" for new traders:
-Do your research. Don't listen to 99% of what you hear in the media. Know the product you are investing in.
-Don't panic...it will always retrace a 2nd time...you didn't miss out.
-If you missed out, do more research and create a new position.
-Consult a financial advisor, especially when it comes to Capital Gains.
-Diversify. Just like the traditional stock market, Crypto has facets of different functionality from a store of value, to platforms for projects, to the companies that create the projects, NFT's, metaverse, etc... Block-chain will have just as profound an impact as the www. had. I used to think 15% of an investment portfolio should be in the crypto space. I have since bumped that to 30% and during a bull market, I personally, liquidate assets to make it 50/50. Again, talk to a financial advisor. Hodl some of your assets. I know too many people who "trade it all." Crypto is volatile enough, this is not Vegas.
-Be patient. Rule of thumb, any industry with a market cap of 1billion isn't going anywhere. The government can regulate, but they can't get rid of said industry. You'll notice that when Facebook was going to come out with their own token 18 months ago, the U.S. government didn't abolish crypto, they certainly crashed it, they learned about it because they recognized the technology and interest behind it and have since educated themselves and invested in it. Crypto isn't a $1b industry...on a $h!t day like today, it is still $2.25trillion.
-Musk, Cuban, China, Buffet: Yes, unfortunately, the market responds to silly tweets and posturing. Know that you didn't miss out. Crypto is still in its toddler years.
---Follow the money. When Cuban was knocking crypto a couple of years ago, he was also accepting it at his sports arenas and buying the short-term dips that his tweets created.
-Continue to research. If you want to trade, start with monopoly money. Most exchanges offer a free "training academy." Read Bulkowski. I was compiling data for 9 months before I realized he had already done it for us.
-Don't invest more than you can lose
-Always be prepared, whether it is for a spike or correction, always have a plan(s) for your next move(s). If you don't have a plan, you are increasing your risk significantly.
-resist FOMO
-Patience (again). There are no straight lines up or down. There are zig-zags up and zig-zags down. If an industry is growing, your money will grow with it. Lose the get rich quick mentality. I've done very well with crypto, but it wasn't overnight. Weathering storms, taking new positions during a bear market, knowing what I'm investing in, and patience, like anything, will prove more successful.
-Treating crypto like a Craps table will give you the same odds as Vegas...the house will win eventually.
-Don't look at the charts all day long...that is a micro trend. Always zoom out and look at the big picture.
-Stop losses. If you bought BTC at $20k in 2017/2018 and still had it at $5k in 2020, you missed out on a better position that would have been created through setting a stop loss. Research how to use the "average true range" when setting a stop loss. Bull runs don't last forever.
-Don't lose sleep. At the end of the day, it is just money. If you are losing sleep over your investment, you are probably overextended in your investment or at the very least not looking at the bigger picture.
Good luck.
-Joe
Comment:
At this point in time, be careful of slight corrections. It has bounced off of $3.30, but can get knocked back down should it not clear $3.46. BTC needs to close above the $49k area (48,900).
Comment:
I forgot to mention in the above rant. $3.30 is also the 11/25-12/5 .786 fib.