a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usd
Good evening and i hope you are well.
The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is…
eur/usd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
I hope you listened to this because this was as perfect of an outlook was it gets. Have been talking about the retest of 1.1 for weeks now and the high this week was 1.0985.
bull case: Bulls got their breakout and their next target is the upper triangle line around 1.097 to break above for the retest of 1.1. They also created a bull channel and want a third leg up. Right now the market expects a pullback to probably retest the breakout and maybe the daily 20ema which are 1.087 - 1.09. Bears printed 2 weak looking bear bars on the daily, which increases the odds that we probably go sideways here.
bear case: Bears sold the upper triangle line which started 3 years ago. Their next target is the lower bull channel trend line and the daily 20ema around 1.0875, which is pretty far away, given the weak selling pressure they created the last 2 trading days. If they find strength, they could argue a trading range to trade back down to the lower triangle trend line 1.078 but that’s so far away and there are many support areas to break through first, so very low probability.
outlook last week: “up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.086 and now we are at 1.092. I said the breakaout will happen this or next week and gave the obvious target we undershot by 15 pips. Pretty fn amazing.
short term: Sideways to up - target above is 1.1 where i expect many profit taking & sell orders - invalid below 1.084
medium-long term: Sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 - the next 2-3 months something will happen news-wise which will set the market tone until the end of the year and we will see bigger fx movements - until then, neutral inside given range
The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is…
eur/usd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
I hope you listened to this because this was as perfect of an outlook was it gets. Have been talking about the retest of 1.1 for weeks now and the high this week was 1.0985.
bull case: Bulls got their breakout and their next target is the upper triangle line around 1.097 to break above for the retest of 1.1. They also created a bull channel and want a third leg up. Right now the market expects a pullback to probably retest the breakout and maybe the daily 20ema which are 1.087 - 1.09. Bears printed 2 weak looking bear bars on the daily, which increases the odds that we probably go sideways here.
bear case: Bears sold the upper triangle line which started 3 years ago. Their next target is the lower bull channel trend line and the daily 20ema around 1.0875, which is pretty far away, given the weak selling pressure they created the last 2 trading days. If they find strength, they could argue a trading range to trade back down to the lower triangle trend line 1.078 but that’s so far away and there are many support areas to break through first, so very low probability.
outlook last week: “up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.086 and now we are at 1.092. I said the breakaout will happen this or next week and gave the obvious target we undershot by 15 pips. Pretty fn amazing.
short term: Sideways to up - target above is 1.1 where i expect many profit taking & sell orders - invalid below 1.084
medium-long term: Sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 - the next 2-3 months something will happen news-wise which will set the market tone until the end of the year and we will see bigger fx movements - until then, neutral inside given range
