Ok folks, I'm not going to sugarcoat it - LTC took a serious hit in this correction. I was not expecting to see it fall as much as it did. It lost fully half its value, from the recent high above $400. Just before the crash, I had noted on the 4- Hour Chart that LTC seemed to be pulling away from its tie to Bitcoin and charting it's own path upward. Today, we see on the 4 Hour chart that LTC has lost all the ground it had gained during its breakaway run and now looks like it's back to lock step with Bitcoin. We lost alot of ground that will have to be made up for LTC to hit a new high above $400, and as I watch it today, it has not made a great come back from the crash. Yes, it hass recovered some, but I see many other ALTS making more of a comeback today which makes me wonder if interest in LTC is weak versus many other, and newer, ALTS and of course ETH. Is this apparent fundamental weakness due to the fact that it does seem to just be a surrogate for BTC? Interest in BTC has certainly been weak for some time, unable to make a new ATH while we saw many other ALTS making spectacular gains, especially ETH and related coins like MATIC. Also, while it is true that LTC made a recent ATH, slightly above $400, it was not a particularly impressive move up since it was not far above its previous ATH at $375. Furthermore, it tried several times to get back above $400 shortly after reaching the new ATH but just couldn't make it. Perhaps it was showing its fundamental weakness right there (if we assume that it is fundamentally weak, that is).
In any case, I must reconsider my position now on LTC in light of these most recent events. Shortly before this most recent crash, I had changed my view to long on LTC and I still think it would be a good addition now to a long term portfolio - in moderation. I stress long term. We may not see the kind of gains that many other, newer coins are making, but a small long position now probably has moderate downside risk. Here's the thing - what is BTC going to do and is LTC going to continue it's old way of following BTC like a lost stepchild? If you believe that BTC is going to come roaring back how to new ATHs then, buy BTC. And that's the problem right now - why buy LTC as long as BTC is a good buy? I mean, if LTC is really mainly a BTC surrogate, and will only do well if BTC does well, then why not just buy BTC? I think many will, and it makes sense that they would. So, will this take money away from those who might buy LTC? I think it might, at least short term, and the result will be that LTC won't be making any spectacular gains in the near term ( and remember how far it has to go to get to a new ATH, as is equally true for BTC). It will be overshadowed by big brother BTC. So I have to say, in my opinion, if it is new money we are talking about investing, and you can only buy one or two investments, I would say skip LTC and buy BTC, ETH and MATIC. If you have plenty of money, or are adding to a long term portfolio, then sure - buy some LTC too. When LTC gets up there, close to a new ATH, then I would be watchful for a breakout and be more interested. But today, after a crash, there are better options for the near term. That's my opinion. I welcome yours, especially if you disagree.
In any case, I must reconsider my position now on LTC in light of these most recent events. Shortly before this most recent crash, I had changed my view to long on LTC and I still think it would be a good addition now to a long term portfolio - in moderation. I stress long term. We may not see the kind of gains that many other, newer coins are making, but a small long position now probably has moderate downside risk. Here's the thing - what is BTC going to do and is LTC going to continue it's old way of following BTC like a lost stepchild? If you believe that BTC is going to come roaring back how to new ATHs then, buy BTC. And that's the problem right now - why buy LTC as long as BTC is a good buy? I mean, if LTC is really mainly a BTC surrogate, and will only do well if BTC does well, then why not just buy BTC? I think many will, and it makes sense that they would. So, will this take money away from those who might buy LTC? I think it might, at least short term, and the result will be that LTC won't be making any spectacular gains in the near term ( and remember how far it has to go to get to a new ATH, as is equally true for BTC). It will be overshadowed by big brother BTC. So I have to say, in my opinion, if it is new money we are talking about investing, and you can only buy one or two investments, I would say skip LTC and buy BTC, ETH and MATIC. If you have plenty of money, or are adding to a long term portfolio, then sure - buy some LTC too. When LTC gets up there, close to a new ATH, then I would be watchful for a breakout and be more interested. But today, after a crash, there are better options for the near term. That's my opinion. I welcome yours, especially if you disagree.