My Notes:
This is a simple ascending triangle setup using retracement fibs and fib extensions where volume first appears with a change of direction to end the downtrend on the daily chart. The entry I took was a little aggressive, but the pattern has broken and I am not waiting for a hook back to prove support where the breakout occurred around 2.92 USD. If that level holds it could be a potential scale in or entry point for the remainder of the move, but strict risk management must be practiced alongside a clearly defined exit point using a stop loss if the setup does not hold.
My entry was the 4th touch of the triangle (2nd swing low after 2 swing highs with a low in between before that).
I know a triangle wouldn't start all the way at the bottom of the potential move that was just for my brain to see and developing reaction in price action to the potentially forming ascending line in the triangle. I think they give away pattern info before the patterns form personally, not sure if it's algos or intentional but I seem to often find them straddle the line like this before a pattern takes.
LINK/USD has been pushing up when BTC/USD pulls back recently (not always, but noticeably so). LINK also seems to pull back as BTC/USD is pushing up. Both of these apparent correlations could be coincidence, but a strong move on BTC/USD in either direction could negate this trade if it is affected significantly.
Entry to sell all point: ~63%
1st potential selloff target around 3.33
2nd at around 3.75
3rd could be that 3.618 for a sneaky fake selloff at 3.99 or 4.00 flat
If they get to the 4.23 that lines up with the .786 (or anywhere close) that's the sell all point and the trade will be finished.
If they open and close candles below the triangle pattern on the 240 and more so the daily chart, the setup could be negated.
Price action is currently above the Moving Averages on the 240 chart, the daily does not have enough data for more than the shortest moving average.
This chart is new and there is high risk of market volatility negating this potential breakout setup move. A stop loss should be used below the ascending line of the triangle pattern, preferably below the first swing low inside the triangle pattern.
Daily Chart View:
View with retracement fibs:
This is not trading advice and I am not a financial advisor. This is for my note taking and educational purposes only.
This is a simple ascending triangle setup using retracement fibs and fib extensions where volume first appears with a change of direction to end the downtrend on the daily chart. The entry I took was a little aggressive, but the pattern has broken and I am not waiting for a hook back to prove support where the breakout occurred around 2.92 USD. If that level holds it could be a potential scale in or entry point for the remainder of the move, but strict risk management must be practiced alongside a clearly defined exit point using a stop loss if the setup does not hold.
My entry was the 4th touch of the triangle (2nd swing low after 2 swing highs with a low in between before that).
I know a triangle wouldn't start all the way at the bottom of the potential move that was just for my brain to see and developing reaction in price action to the potentially forming ascending line in the triangle. I think they give away pattern info before the patterns form personally, not sure if it's algos or intentional but I seem to often find them straddle the line like this before a pattern takes.
LINK/USD has been pushing up when BTC/USD pulls back recently (not always, but noticeably so). LINK also seems to pull back as BTC/USD is pushing up. Both of these apparent correlations could be coincidence, but a strong move on BTC/USD in either direction could negate this trade if it is affected significantly.
Entry to sell all point: ~63%
1st potential selloff target around 3.33
2nd at around 3.75
3rd could be that 3.618 for a sneaky fake selloff at 3.99 or 4.00 flat
If they get to the 4.23 that lines up with the .786 (or anywhere close) that's the sell all point and the trade will be finished.
If they open and close candles below the triangle pattern on the 240 and more so the daily chart, the setup could be negated.
Price action is currently above the Moving Averages on the 240 chart, the daily does not have enough data for more than the shortest moving average.
This chart is new and there is high risk of market volatility negating this potential breakout setup move. A stop loss should be used below the ascending line of the triangle pattern, preferably below the first swing low inside the triangle pattern.
Daily Chart View:
View with retracement fibs:
This is not trading advice and I am not a financial advisor. This is for my note taking and educational purposes only.
Comment:
Really looking to see if they open and close a daily candle above that 1.618 fib level. That would be a good confirmation in favor of this trade playing out more.
Trade active:
So far the extension 1.618 and retracement .382 that overlap haven't been breached.
Will update if anything drastic changes!
Will update if anything drastic changes!
Trade active:
Price action is moving back up on the 1 hr as selling appears to . I'm looking for some volume to push through resistance and make a new local higher high to keep pushing strong momentum into this move to really set it off. Otherwise the price may stall out or retrace further. This short term movement is irrelevant if the top of the triangle holds the breakout and we should see some further movement upwards if selling dries up and momentum can build after the breakout is held and carries over onto higher timeframes.
Comment:
EDIT: Price action is moving back up on the 1 hr as selling appears to *be running out of steam.* I'm looking for some volume to push through resistance and make a new local higher high to keep pushing strong momentum into this move to really set it off. Otherwise the price may stall out or retrace further. This short term movement is irrelevant if the top of the triangle holds the breakout and we should see some further movement upwards if selling dries up and momentum can build after the breakout is held and carries over onto higher timeframes.
Trade active:
On the 1 hour chart we see the volume declining into the pull back which is a good sign for the long move and supports the current analysis.
Trade active:
Trade remains unchanged.
Trade active:
Here's an updated look at the 60m chart. We managed to eek out a slightly high high with a little buying volume as the move progressed a little further in the past few hours. If we can get some volume flowing in, we may see a push to the next important fib levels above very soon. More updates to follow! The time may come soon when pulling your stop loss up might make sense.
Comment:
We are looking to break free of the current level and push up towards the 3.30-3.40 area where there is a chance of strong resistance and a small selloff. That could be a good place to take profit or scale back the position for a retrace back to the current area. It depends on how quickly the move progresses and volume will be important to keep an eye on along the way!
Trade active:
The trade is progressing nicely - we can see a healthy pullback from the recent push up and so far support is strong compared to selling. They may bring it back to the breakout level before pushing harder, but so far the selling is struggling to bring price down all the way. Volume continues to provide clues on the lower timeframes.
Comment:
The most recent push has been squared up nicely - look for either: 1. strong volume to push to reach for the fib targets above that leads to a strong selloff and retrace to as low as the white trendline or 2. for a low volume drift back up to the most recent high that leads to a new local high on relatively low volume like we just saw at 3.15 USD. As always, if BTC/USD makes a significant move this entire setup could break down on short notice so be sure you have a stop in place to define your total risk. This post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below!! I love confirmation as much as a good counter-argument!
Comment:
So far option 2 above looks like the most likely, but they could bring volume out of nowhere and shift gears!
Trade active:
This is what we've been waiting for - a hook back to the breakout point. I drew 2 arrows on the original chart. One possibility shows the potential bounce at the current level about where we broke the triangle pattern. The other arrow shows the possibility of going back to the ascending triangle trend line. Either way, if both of these areas fail to provide support it could end the trade. We would like to see buying volume show up before the price action drops below the triangle pattern line so that the move can continue. If they hold this area it will have been a pattern break followed by a hook. If momentum and volume shows up on the buy side it could produce a strong move up.
Comment:
So far the breakout level is holding well. I will update when anything changes!
Trade active:
The market is swinging down and Bitcoin along with ETH and LTC are putting in downward pushes which is leading to many alts correcting recent moves. This is something to be wary of and we should watch closely for signs that the trade isn't able to take the pressure. So far though, we are still in acceptable correction areas and the trade is holding.
It looks like we'll get to test the ascending triangle line after all. This will really help us to see if the pattern holds or if the trade is breaking down. Either way, anyone in it should be prepared to be wrong and take their small gain, breakeven, or acceptable small loss depending on their entry and defined risk. As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below!
It looks like we'll get to test the ascending triangle line after all. This will really help us to see if the pattern holds or if the trade is breaking down. Either way, anyone in it should be prepared to be wrong and take their small gain, breakeven, or acceptable small loss depending on their entry and defined risk. As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below!
Comment:
We're already seeing the selling ease off of the drop and looking at volume, there wasn't really much to begin with driving this move. It was likely a refection of the larger market movement and it seems that this potential entry or position increase area may not last long. I will update if we get back up out of the triangle pattern today! :)
Trade active:
We have a bounce and we're back above the breakout! Now if we can hold up here and start building momentum again we can look above for some targets. If Bitcoin relaxes for awhile we should have breathing room to push up some more.
Comment:
So far so good, since dropping down to nearly the ascending triangle trendline, we popped back above the break and we're still holding above the 1.618 where the breakout occurred.
Comment:
We're back at 3.00 USD again and so far the volume has been relatively low rising off the last wick that failed to quite reach all the way to the ascending triangle trendline. I removed the top arrow from my working chart since they followed the lower path. I also marked the first target area for a possible strong selloff based on retracement fibs and previous price action in that area looking left on the chart. Unless momentum carries price action swiftly through the 3.30-3.33 USD area there is a strong chance we met resistance there. I will likely reduce my position if there is any stalling in that area or price action doesn't hold there. If we break through cleanly to the next fib area and hold, I will instead raise my stop loss and press the winner further. All this could change if the trade breaks down before then!!
As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below and see the comments for a link to where I learned my methodology.,
As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below and see the comments for a link to where I learned my methodology.,
Comment:
For any of the beginners out there, you want to have a plan in place for approaching a target area. T1 at 3.30 USD from the entry of 2.62 will yield a result of about 25% depending on exact buying prices and exact selling prices of individual lots. A simple method of trading would be to take half the position off at a target such as this. If you reduce your position by half here, it means that your risk is decreased by half and you will secure a 12.5% gain net on the closed half (half of 25% = 12.5%). You then can wait to see if a selloff takes place and decide later if you want to increase the position again depending on how the selling takes place and where it exhausts or finds support. If you cannot sit and watch the chart when this area is reached, it is generally best to reduce your risk and secure gains for later analysis. As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only!
Comment:
Let's do it LINK! 1hr is looking nice so far.
Trade active:
We may get another test of the ascending triangle trendline. Currently we're sitting just above the 1.618 again and on the 1hr chart we can see what appears to be a head and shoulders pattern. Many traders will think this means we're about to go down in price, but the head and shoulders pattern means very little in this context. We're not at the end of a significant wave cycle or market cycle, so a reversal pattern doesn't make much sense. That being said, traders can and will be fooled by them and sometimes they will react to them strongly. Until strong buying volume shows up, we may drift around this area and continue sideways for a little while. Time to wait and see what happens next.
Comment:
Nothing has changed yet, so far we are still sitting at the 1.618 and we are looking for either a break down to test the ascending triangle trendline or a push up to try for the next swing high.
Comment:
Still in the same place, holding above the 1.618 breakout. I will update with a new chart once a decent move occurs.
Comment:
As we creep back above 3.00 USD - look for volume to show up to push us up to the first target area. If BTC/USD makes a significant move it could affect this trade by putting in a fast candle to the downside, so care should be taken in managing risk with a small position size and a wide stop loss.
Trade active:
We're still straddling the line of the breakout and you can see a few 240m candles that are overlapping it. Volume is still very low and we have yet to really see a test of the ascending triangle line since breaking out of the top. If we continue drifting sideways in this area, look for some action to occur as we reach the edge of the triangle pattern.
Trade active:
Still moving along mostly sideways in the same area. We need some volume to show up to make a move and give us more information.
Patience is key!
Patience is key!
Trade active:
We are getting close to do or die time as we are getting close to the ascending triangle line. BTC/USD is drifting lower today and taking a lot of USD pairs down with it. I will be watching LINK/USD and BTC/USD very closely today and if a strong break of the trendline occurs, stop losses may be triggered and the trade will be over.
Comment:
We're finally seeing some volume start to show up, but we have yet to touch the trendline and it is not enough yet to start moving price around. We're still holding the same area as the volume is increasing. Hopefully it will continue to increase and price will start to push upwards as it gets squeezed into the trendline. The other possibility is that we see a break to the downside, but it would need to hold under and put candles in below there. Sometimes in crypto, we see a fast wick to run stops that breaks below a trend before immediately returning back to the trend. This is a very tricky area and it helps immensely to be in from a lower price. If you entered too high, this can become a stressful situation really quickly. Anytime I feel stress, I lower my position and risk until I feel completely comfortable.
As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below and see the comments for a link to where I learned my methodology.
As always, this post is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes. Please feel free to leave comments below and see the comments for a link to where I learned my methodology.
Comment:
Comment:
We're almost to the trendline. I will update after we get a reaction of some sort or if volume shows up to show us the way.
Trade active:
I rarely go below the 1hr timeframe, except to analyze things like this...
Notice how we touched the trendline and look at the volume below. If this continues it's a good sign that we have a chance at the targets we're looking for. We need volume to come in on the buy side and push us back up above the breakout now. It may take some time and we may sit on the line or fake a breakout below before this occurs. Patience is still key!
Notice how we touched the trendline and look at the volume below. If this continues it's a good sign that we have a chance at the targets we're looking for. We need volume to come in on the buy side and push us back up above the breakout now. It may take some time and we may sit on the line or fake a breakout below before this occurs. Patience is still key!
Comment:
The reason why I sometimes dig into the 15m for this type of analysis. Here's a view of the 1hr. You'd never see the buying that took place at the trendline on the 1 hr because it's buried in the selling that got us there.
Multiple timeframes are important when practicing TA. Let's see if they can hold the move now and push us back up!
Multiple timeframes are important when practicing TA. Let's see if they can hold the move now and push us back up!
Comment:
BTC/USD just took a decent hit to the bottom of it's channel, now we see LINK/USD is popping below the trend line on the low timeframe. You can see we've done this before a couple times, but it's a very risky area and we need to see them hold here and keep volume low until it turns.
This is the do or die zone - high risk entries can occur in here, but BTC needs to prove that it's done for now and then the alts that just took hits can try to recover and/or resume the moves. There are similar triangle setups on many charts, but not all will work out in the same direction. You must have a plan, you cannot panic sell, and your stop loss has to give room for these zones without getting too close. That's why lower entries in the pattern can be helpful, but have to be managed tight until it gets out of the pattern.
This is the do or die zone - high risk entries can occur in here, but BTC needs to prove that it's done for now and then the alts that just took hits can try to recover and/or resume the moves. There are similar triangle setups on many charts, but not all will work out in the same direction. You must have a plan, you cannot panic sell, and your stop loss has to give room for these zones without getting too close. That's why lower entries in the pattern can be helpful, but have to be managed tight until it gets out of the pattern.
Trade active:
BTC/USD pushed a bit farther and now we see LINK has broken below the do or die zone.
The volume is relatively weak, so this may be a fake break down, but anyone who got in after the breakout may be looking at their stop losses or may have taken a loss. My stop loss is a bit under 2.75 and having scaled out some already previously my risk is a stop out to profit. Anyone who is not in this position is looking at potential losses if BTC continues to bring in the red. Risk should be your number 1 priority at all times!
The volume is relatively weak, so this may be a fake break down, but anyone who got in after the breakout may be looking at their stop losses or may have taken a loss. My stop loss is a bit under 2.75 and having scaled out some already previously my risk is a stop out to profit. Anyone who is not in this position is looking at potential losses if BTC continues to bring in the red. Risk should be your number 1 priority at all times!
Trade closed manually:
The rest of my LINK exited on a stop loss - all eyes should now be on BTC as we may be headed to the lower half of the current trend which has caused some volatile movement in the past.