An ultra-long time frame analysis for LINK/BTC:
“I bought an altcoin in November 2017 and I was up by 92x on my buy price in August 2020. I am up by 28.3x on my buy price in March 2021.”
If someone told you this to you, you would think it was a joke given the brutal retrace most alts saw over 2018 – 2020. During this period, XTZ and LINK were two altcoins that created the next generation of moonboys who would tell you ETH doesn’t scale and shill you some DeFi coin.
Going forward here is a contrarian view: LINK outperformed most alts spectacularly during the bear market. Charting on weekly timeframe suggests that LINK will underperform most defi alts in a spectacular manner during the bull market.
Features of the chart:
1. Bullish TK cross in November 2018, Bearish TK cross in Jan 2021: Suggests the major rally is OVER. What remains is potential “sucker’s rally” for Marines to believe in.
2. During the bull run, price bounced on Kijun and Tenkan several times. Any break below Kijun was quickly recovered without affecting the long term trend (no bearish T-K cross)
3. VPVR suggests most of the accumulation occurred below 12000 sats.
4. Volume has gone down over the long term.
Forecasts: After such a strong long term move, expectation of a strong bull run is unrealistic. Still as a level headed person here are two scenarios. The bearish/neutral case is more likely:
1. Bullish case: Price reverts back to tenkan, uses that as support and approaches the cloud. The Kijun here is flat, so is the cloud. MASSIVE resistance. This should be the long term target ~ a 2x. A potential bull div on the RSI will need to occur. The question is: are you better off taking a trade elsewhere?
I wouldn’t expect price to break through this unless the old marines recruit new marines and concentrate all the liquidity in LINK. With so many DeFi plays coming up, liquidity will get more and more dispersed.
2. Bearish case: Tenkan acts as resistance and we form a massive descending triangle. Break down to about 30k sats. This may occur if the LINK team and advisors continue to dump millions of LINK on the market. Make no mistake, they have plenty left in their tanks.
EVEN in my bearish case, you would be up about 18x if you bought in Nov 2017. Still a positive outcome that hodlers of other alts would be grateful for today.
“I bought an altcoin in November 2017 and I was up by 92x on my buy price in August 2020. I am up by 28.3x on my buy price in March 2021.”
If someone told you this to you, you would think it was a joke given the brutal retrace most alts saw over 2018 – 2020. During this period, XTZ and LINK were two altcoins that created the next generation of moonboys who would tell you ETH doesn’t scale and shill you some DeFi coin.
Going forward here is a contrarian view: LINK outperformed most alts spectacularly during the bear market. Charting on weekly timeframe suggests that LINK will underperform most defi alts in a spectacular manner during the bull market.
Features of the chart:
1. Bullish TK cross in November 2018, Bearish TK cross in Jan 2021: Suggests the major rally is OVER. What remains is potential “sucker’s rally” for Marines to believe in.
2. During the bull run, price bounced on Kijun and Tenkan several times. Any break below Kijun was quickly recovered without affecting the long term trend (no bearish T-K cross)
3. VPVR suggests most of the accumulation occurred below 12000 sats.
4. Volume has gone down over the long term.
Forecasts: After such a strong long term move, expectation of a strong bull run is unrealistic. Still as a level headed person here are two scenarios. The bearish/neutral case is more likely:
1. Bullish case: Price reverts back to tenkan, uses that as support and approaches the cloud. The Kijun here is flat, so is the cloud. MASSIVE resistance. This should be the long term target ~ a 2x. A potential bull div on the RSI will need to occur. The question is: are you better off taking a trade elsewhere?
I wouldn’t expect price to break through this unless the old marines recruit new marines and concentrate all the liquidity in LINK. With so many DeFi plays coming up, liquidity will get more and more dispersed.
2. Bearish case: Tenkan acts as resistance and we form a massive descending triangle. Break down to about 30k sats. This may occur if the LINK team and advisors continue to dump millions of LINK on the market. Make no mistake, they have plenty left in their tanks.
EVEN in my bearish case, you would be up about 18x if you bought in Nov 2017. Still a positive outcome that hodlers of other alts would be grateful for today.
