$LCID Earnings/FOMC meeting push -- Potential IHS pattern
On the $LCID 4H+ext chart it looks like we've started a potential IHS (Inverted head & shoulders) pattern.
IHS:
Using fibannaci retracement and extension from the high to the low (point 3) we can see a shoulder line forming on the 0.236 fibannaci extension at points 1 & 5. Resistance starts forming at near the 0.236 fibanacci retracement around $13.05 -- which also coincides with some resistance on the volume profile.
At this point it looks like we've started to clear the neck line resistance and we're moving up the fibannaci extension -- as well as the upcoming gap in the volume profile.
Stochastic is over > 60, MACD is making higher highs, and the TTM is firing to the upside.
Considering the macro is looking to potentially do a relief rally leading up to the FOMC meeting on 11/02 and $LCID earnings is on 11/08 we might see a continuation of a channel upwards through this gap in volume.
From Oct 21 close looks like at least another +0.31 pts +2.31% to the upside if momentum continues Mon, Oct 24 as we continue pushing up the gap in the volume profile. Keep in mind the current extension is showing potential resistance/support at the 0.618 line at $13.20. We would need to clear this line with momentum to gap up to the 0.786 line which is where volume profile resistance starts building up.
We have been in a massive bull flag downward channel for quite some time, so expect big resistance as the extension approaches the 1.0 line at $14.02 (+0.71 pts +5.37% upside)-- which happens to coincide with the top line resistance of this bull flag channel.
If we are able to clear this channel and climb up the volume profile, the 4h+ext point of control on the volume profile is up at $15.06, which would be a +1.74 pts +13.09% change to the upside.
Continue monitoring stochsatic and ttm squeeze; break in trend would be a collapse of 0.618 $13.20 support which we could snap the 0.5 quickly and probably land back near the 0.382, and the next major shelf of support on the volume profile around $12.90
PT 1: $13.56 (+2.31%)
PT 2: $14.02 (+5.37)
PT 3 (Max): $15.06 (+13.09%)
Stop limit (break of 0.618 support and snap 0.5 support): $12.90 (-3%)
IHS:
Using fibannaci retracement and extension from the high to the low (point 3) we can see a shoulder line forming on the 0.236 fibannaci extension at points 1 & 5. Resistance starts forming at near the 0.236 fibanacci retracement around $13.05 -- which also coincides with some resistance on the volume profile.
At this point it looks like we've started to clear the neck line resistance and we're moving up the fibannaci extension -- as well as the upcoming gap in the volume profile.
Stochastic is over > 60, MACD is making higher highs, and the TTM is firing to the upside.
Considering the macro is looking to potentially do a relief rally leading up to the FOMC meeting on 11/02 and $LCID earnings is on 11/08 we might see a continuation of a channel upwards through this gap in volume.
From Oct 21 close looks like at least another +0.31 pts +2.31% to the upside if momentum continues Mon, Oct 24 as we continue pushing up the gap in the volume profile. Keep in mind the current extension is showing potential resistance/support at the 0.618 line at $13.20. We would need to clear this line with momentum to gap up to the 0.786 line which is where volume profile resistance starts building up.
We have been in a massive bull flag downward channel for quite some time, so expect big resistance as the extension approaches the 1.0 line at $14.02 (+0.71 pts +5.37% upside)-- which happens to coincide with the top line resistance of this bull flag channel.
If we are able to clear this channel and climb up the volume profile, the 4h+ext point of control on the volume profile is up at $15.06, which would be a +1.74 pts +13.09% change to the upside.
Continue monitoring stochsatic and ttm squeeze; break in trend would be a collapse of 0.618 $13.20 support which we could snap the 0.5 quickly and probably land back near the 0.382, and the next major shelf of support on the volume profile around $12.90
PT 1: $13.56 (+2.31%)
PT 2: $14.02 (+5.37)
PT 3 (Max): $15.06 (+13.09%)
Stop limit (break of 0.618 support and snap 0.5 support): $12.90 (-3%)
Comment:
At this point it looks like the $14 range is acting as a decent support but I would consider to de-risking. PT1 and PT2 has been hit several times now. Decent probability of $LCID continuing to the 200 4h MA to $14.70, but the impulse is slowing down.
Bulls need to look to clear the volume shelf above $14.49.
Volume support potentially snaps at $13.88 -- Consider taking profits at this point if we start pushing back down.
Bulls need to look to clear the volume shelf above $14.49.
Volume support potentially snaps at $13.88 -- Consider taking profits at this point if we start pushing back down.
Trade closed: target reached:
PT1 and PT2 reached. At this point I would take profits as we have snapped the volume support. Macro is looking bearish ahead of FOMC. Small probability that the FOMC meeting is bullish for the macro and this pops back up but I would recommend taking profits -- especially considering we've bounced up and down and hit PT1 several times before.
Either we bounce off these intersections at $13.80 and continue back upwards, or we revert back into the larger downward channel.
Look for sustained support above $14 for bullish continuation.