Coca-Cola's Dividend:A Legacy of Yield Amidst Growing Challenges

Coca-Cola's Dividend: A Legacy of Yield Amidst Growing Challenges

Introduction:

Coca-Cola stands as an enduring icon in the world of dividend stocks, offering investors a rich history of consistently increasing payouts and a dividend yield that surpasses the market average. However, as stagnant free cash flow growth and rising costs cast shadows over its dividend sustainability, the question arises: Is Coca-Cola's dividend still an attractive proposition for prospective shareholders?

The Resilience of Coca-Cola's Dividend:

Coca-Cola's dividend story is nothing short of remarkable. The company initiated its dividend payments in 1920, and since 1963, it has continuously increased its dividends—a tradition that persists to this day. This unbroken streak has captured the attention of income-oriented investors, including Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. While Buffett entered Coca-Cola stock relatively late in 1988, his investment has transformed into a substantial source of income, generating an impressive 57% yearly return, which continues to grow.

For new investors, Coca-Cola offers an annual dividend of $1.84 per share, translating into a respectable 3% dividend yield—roughly double the average cash return of 1.5% seen in the S&P 500. For those seeking a reliable source of growing income, a dividend supported by a globally beloved brand remains an enticing prospect.

Reasons for Caution:

However, despite the allure of a high yield, there are compelling reasons for caution. Coca-Cola has delivered a slightly negative total return over the past year and has lagged behind the S&P 500's performance over a five-year period. Such underwhelming performance may explain why Warren Buffett's team has not expanded its Coca-Cola holdings since 1994.

Moreover, the rising cost of the dividend raises significant concerns. In the first two quarters of 2023, Coca-Cola generated $4 billion in free cash flow. Yet, the dividend payout consumed nearly $2.1 billion in the first quarter alone, indicating that it did not fully cover this expense.

In response, Coca-Cola postponed its latest dividend payment to early in the third quarter, a practice employed in previous years. This suggests that the dividend cost has become burdensome for the company.

Future Challenges:

While Coca-Cola anticipates generating $9.5 billion in free cash flow for the year, covering the expected $8.4 billion in dividend costs, this leaves just over $1 billion for share repurchases or reinvestment in core operations. If challenges persist, the company may need to slow down the rate of dividend increases. If free cash flow lags behind the growing dividend, it could strain the company's financials.

Conclusion:

Investors should not solely rely on Coca-Cola's dividend in the current environment. While the cessation of dividend increases remains unlikely, Coca-Cola's total return has trailed market indexes. With the potential to earn higher returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) while taking on less risk, the appeal of Coca-Cola's dividend has dimmed.

Long-time investors like Warren Buffett have enjoyed significant capital gains from their Coca-Cola investments, and the attractive dividend yield provides no reason for them to divest. However, considering Buffett's restrained approach to adding more shares for nearly three decades, both prospective investors and existing shareholders would be wise to heed his example and exercise caution in the current climate.