Ok, so IDR just passed psychological level of 15k, it happened right the next day after I posted my analysis where you can see it here
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Low inflation create worries in the market because analysts are speculating that there might be a lower demand in the market. The September data shows a deflation of 0.18% MoM which driven from a lower food prices - broiler chicken to be specific, red onions, red chilli and chilli peppers.
This downtrend channel is likely to happen because there are very little sentiment in the domestic market other than earnings 3Q18 which most likely not be very satisfying for banks (higher rates + low loan growth + higher deposits = lower NIM). Selected retailer may show some recovery and I believe the mining sector will support much of the index.
If the price movement breaks the upper resistance channel, hence I can be confident there's a recovery and it can close on a 6,000ish by the end of the year...But as long as if it floats by the channel, I believe it's still a downtrend movement.
Low inflation create worries in the market because analysts are speculating that there might be a lower demand in the market. The September data shows a deflation of 0.18% MoM which driven from a lower food prices - broiler chicken to be specific, red onions, red chilli and chilli peppers.
This downtrend channel is likely to happen because there are very little sentiment in the domestic market other than earnings 3Q18 which most likely not be very satisfying for banks (higher rates + low loan growth + higher deposits = lower NIM). Selected retailer may show some recovery and I believe the mining sector will support much of the index.
If the price movement breaks the upper resistance channel, hence I can be confident there's a recovery and it can close on a 6,000ish by the end of the year...But as long as if it floats by the channel, I believe it's still a downtrend movement.