Princess Gwen here, making guesstimates. A Princess likes to know what to expect, which is why this Princess likes graphs. And the graph to reference here is the Dow Jones in 1929. Yes, that's right, we've gone past the 2008, past the 2000. To get any kind of estimate for what to expect, I went back to see how the Stock Market behaved in the big crash. I'm using that as a very rough estimate for what I think could happen next.
After an initial drop to roughly 60% of peak, the Dow Jones in '29 made a double bottom, rebounded to 75% of peak, and then proceeded to go down, pretty much all the way down. This is pretty typical for a really pumped market. Big, sudden, dramatic fall, rebound to something that looks like it could recover, failure, then sell-off, with sellers selling every lower high on the way down. Bitcoin did it, the Nasdaq did it in 2000, and it looks like the most probable scenario for the next few years.
Anyone shorting, be prepared to exit your shorts. Anyone long, wait for entry opportunities. Waiting for a double bottom is a good sign, if you get one. Anyone still convinced this market will recover to the peak? This will take a long time to come back. A really long time. Being bullish on the way down is a good way to lose money.
Stay safe out there.
After an initial drop to roughly 60% of peak, the Dow Jones in '29 made a double bottom, rebounded to 75% of peak, and then proceeded to go down, pretty much all the way down. This is pretty typical for a really pumped market. Big, sudden, dramatic fall, rebound to something that looks like it could recover, failure, then sell-off, with sellers selling every lower high on the way down. Bitcoin did it, the Nasdaq did it in 2000, and it looks like the most probable scenario for the next few years.
Anyone shorting, be prepared to exit your shorts. Anyone long, wait for entry opportunities. Waiting for a double bottom is a good sign, if you get one. Anyone still convinced this market will recover to the peak? This will take a long time to come back. A really long time. Being bullish on the way down is a good way to lose money.
Stay safe out there.