This scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
Reasons for Selling
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
Reasons for Bull Rally
- This month inflation report is cooler.
- With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
- This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
- With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
- July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
Trade active:
CPI report came in as we all know by now. If July 29th GDP report is recession, we will see a huge sell off. Earnings is also here, we'll see how markets play. It might be a really mixed 2 weeks.
Trade closed: target reached:
Nasdaq reached 13,181 in the bounce before selling off.
Trade closed: target reached
Comment:
Significant it was ;)