What is the UMCSI Showing to us?
The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money in circulation. Even fiscal policies (“Free money” programs) are rooted in monetary policies. If the government ask for money nobody has at hand, the FEDS issue debt and create the liquidity needed to pay for those programs. This is important to understand. They create money out of free air.
Follow GDP NOW from the Atlanta Feds and we will see how growth is constantly fading away. Will we have a second quarter in the red?
GDP Outlook.
The UMCSI is at its lowest level since the virus was released, which was the lowest ever since, even under Bush, Obama and Trump. We also had the first Quarter of the GDP coming in negative this year. Two in a row makes it officially a recession.
And Stocks?
We also see that the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000 are about to hit 20% below the most recent high. A 20% correction will be seen as a recession in the broad market. Why? Because earnings of the underlaying companies will come in lower than they used to do. Also, the higher the stock price gets the more is expected for their growth. Relatively to their value the stock has to grow more to produce the same ROC. Otherwise the EPS (Earnings Per Share) will slump and investors will look for other opportunities. This makes the stock market less attractive the more it grows. Other investments are also less risky. And, i.e., about 50% of the IWM, Russel 2000, cannot serve their debts!!
The Party is over my Friends.
Follow me on Twitter, this post with images is pinned for a while!
The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money in circulation. Even fiscal policies (“Free money” programs) are rooted in monetary policies. If the government ask for money nobody has at hand, the FEDS issue debt and create the liquidity needed to pay for those programs. This is important to understand. They create money out of free air.
Follow GDP NOW from the Atlanta Feds and we will see how growth is constantly fading away. Will we have a second quarter in the red?
GDP Outlook.
The UMCSI is at its lowest level since the virus was released, which was the lowest ever since, even under Bush, Obama and Trump. We also had the first Quarter of the GDP coming in negative this year. Two in a row makes it officially a recession.
And Stocks?
We also see that the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000 are about to hit 20% below the most recent high. A 20% correction will be seen as a recession in the broad market. Why? Because earnings of the underlaying companies will come in lower than they used to do. Also, the higher the stock price gets the more is expected for their growth. Relatively to their value the stock has to grow more to produce the same ROC. Otherwise the EPS (Earnings Per Share) will slump and investors will look for other opportunities. This makes the stock market less attractive the more it grows. Other investments are also less risky. And, i.e., about 50% of the IWM, Russel 2000, cannot serve their debts!!
The Party is over my Friends.
Follow me on Twitter, this post with images is pinned for a while!
